东吴证券晨会纪要-20250626

Macro Strategy - The current market is entering a risk-off phase, with a potential shift towards growth sectors as seen in previous cycles [1][14] - Initial performance is led by TMT sectors, followed by rotation to upstream resources and financials, and then a slight rebound in consumption and manufacturing sectors [1][14] - Defensive strategies are recommended, focusing on stable sectors such as banks, utilities, and leading home appliance companies [1][14] Fixed Income - The Youshi Convertible Bond is expected to list at a price between 120.30 and 134.02 CNY, with a subscription rate of 0.0049% [2][15] - The bond has a total issuance scale of 1.165 billion CNY, aimed at advanced packaging technology development and working capital [2][15] Industry Analysis - The computer industry is seeing a shift in regulatory perspectives towards stablecoins, indicating a significant change in the financial system's approach to cryptocurrencies [3][17] - The approval of Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) to provide virtual asset trading services marks a transformation in the non-bank financial ecosystem, enhancing the competitive landscape for digital asset services [4][18] - Xiaomi's automotive strategy emphasizes user-driven innovation, leveraging its extensive user base to enhance product offerings and market positioning [5][20] Automotive Sector - Xiaomi's automotive business is positioned to expand across various price segments, focusing on high-performance models and a comprehensive ecosystem strategy [5][20] - The company plans to invest significantly in R&D, with an annual budget of at least 30 billion CNY allocated to automotive technology [5][20] Heavy Truck Industry - The heavy truck sector is expected to see a recovery in domestic sales, projected to reach 700,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16% due to favorable policies [7][21] - Recommended stocks in this sector include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power, which are expected to benefit from improved performance [7][21] Consumer Goods - Zhou Hei Ya is undergoing a transformation under new management, focusing on optimizing store models and enhancing product offerings, with a projected net profit growth of 54.44% from 2025 to 2027 [8][23] - The company is expanding its distribution channels and exploring international markets to drive growth [8][23]