LLDPE：短期震荡为主

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for LLDPE is neutral, with a trend strength of 0, indicating neither a strong bullish nor bearish outlook [3][4]. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, LLDPE is expected to trade in a range. The conflict between Iran and Israel has eased, leading to an expected retracement of the premium caused by polyethylene import risks. The spot market has weak high - price transactions, and the negative feedback from the demand side has affected the industry chain. Although geopolitical issues may fluctuate, the overall short - term trend is sideways [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The L2509 contract closed at 7271 yesterday, down 0.27%. The trading volume was 309,550, and the open interest decreased by 12,263 [1]. - Basis and Spread: The basis of the 09 contract was 9 yesterday, compared to 50 the previous day. The 09 - 01 contract spread was 47 yesterday, down from 51 the previous day [1]. - Spot Prices: In the North China region, the price was 7280 yuan/ton yesterday, down from 7300 yuan/ton the previous day. In the East and South China regions, the prices remained unchanged at 7350 yuan/ton and 7430 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.2 Spot Market News - LLDPE market prices partially declined, with a price range of 20 - 110 yuan/ton. The futures market opened lower and traded weakly, causing cautious market sentiment. Petrochemical companies lowered some ex - factory prices, and traders followed suit. Terminal buyers showed low enthusiasm and a cautious purchasing attitude [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - Macro - factors: The easing of the conflict between Iran and Israel is expected to lead to a retracement of the premium caused by polyethylene import risks. The weak high - price transactions in the spot market and the continuous weakening of the basis have led to negative feedback in the industry chain due to weak demand. However, geopolitical issues may still fluctuate [2]. - Supply - demand Situation: In the 09 contract of 2025, the expected new production capacity of domestic PE plants is 2.05 million tons, resulting in significant supply pressure. Although there are many maintenance activities in June, it is not enough to change the high - production pattern. On the demand side, the shed film industry is in the traditional off - season, with weak market demand and low orders. Most enterprises only maintain phased production. The demand for packaging films is average, and the operating rate has decreased by 0.7% compared to the previous period. Downstream factories have phased low - price restocking, but the continuous restocking strength is insufficient [2]. - Future Considerations: Attention should be paid to the price difference between low - density and linear polyethylene. Due to the continuous decline in HDPE inventory in the first half of the year and the relatively low inventory year - on - year, the HD - LL price difference has widened, and there may be a switch in production capacity between the two. If full - density plants continue to switch to HDPE production, the supply pressure of LLDPE may be alleviated. Also, the price difference between LDPE and EVA products should be monitored [2].