甲醇日评：港口低库存支撑价格-20250626

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - After the cease - fire agreement, the market risk - aversion sentiment decreased, the geopolitical premium was quickly squeezed out, and the methanol price dropped significantly. Although the geopolitical situation may be volatile, the market is no longer focused on conflict escalation. Methanol will gradually return to its own fundamentals. The domestic methanol supply - demand situation has little change and weak driving force. The possible impact on the future market lies in imports. Considering the impact on Iranian methanol supply, imports in July may decrease. With the support of the current low port inventory, the methanol price correction is expected to be limited. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500 [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - Methanol Futures Prices: MA01 closed at 2417 yuan/ton on June 25, up 10 yuan/ton (0.42%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2328 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.30%); MA09 closed at 2391 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton (0.50%) [1]. - Methanol Spot Prices: On June 25, the spot price in Taicang was 2645 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.38%); in Shandong, it was 2280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (- 1.30%); in Guangdong, it was 2455 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.41%); in Shaanxi, it was 2065 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton (- 2.59%); in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei, it remained unchanged; in Inner Mongolia, it was 1990 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (- 1.49%) [1]. - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA remained unchanged at 228 yuan/ton [1]. - Coal Spot Prices: The price of Ordos Q5500 and Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 427.50 yuan/ton and 485 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Yulin Q6000 was 495 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan/ton (0.51%) [1]. - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 3.2. Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profit: The profit of coal - based methanol remained unchanged at 499.70 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged at - 460.00 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream Profit: The profit of Northwest MTO was 528.00 yuan/ton, up 52.80 yuan/ton (11.11%); the profit of East China MTO was - 1332.07 yuan/ton, down 46.00 yuan/ton (- 3.58%); the profit of acetic acid was 323.81 yuan/ton, down 5.77 yuan/ton (- 1.75%); the profit of MTBE was 146.52 yuan/ton, down 150.00 yuan/ton (- 50.59%); the profit of formaldehyde was - 252.40 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan/ton (- 8.61%); the profit of dimethyl ether remained unchanged at 518.00 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3. Information - Domestic Information: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a narrow range, opening at 2383 yuan/ton, closing at 2391 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 1052872 lots, and the open interest was 904409 lots, with volume shrinking and open interest increasing. All contracts had trading volumes during the trading day [1]. - Foreign Information: Today, the reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol cargoes arriving in the far - month is 275 - 284 US dollars/ton. Traders are mostly on the sidelines, and there is no news of actual transactions. In other regions of the Middle East, there is also a lack of active offer news. The reference negotiation price of cargoes from other Middle Eastern regions arriving in the near - far - month is + 1 - 1.2%. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of a certain country's device in the Middle East [1].