烧碱：近月补贴水，短期反弹

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda futures price continued to decline due to Shandong alumina enterprises lowering their purchase prices again. When there is an expectation of spot price reduction, the stocking demand of downstream and traders slows down significantly, intensifying the market's negative feedback. However, the 07 contract is facing delivery, with few warehouse receipts and futures price making up the discount, leading to a short - term market rebound [2]. - The pattern of high profits and high production in the second half of the year will always impact caustic soda. Shorting caustic soda profits will become an annual - level strategy and the main logic. But with a large discount, the short - term further decline space is limited, and it is necessary to wait for the spot price to drop and the basis to converge [2]. - Caustic soda still has room for rebound. In the past three years, there have been profits of over 1000 yuan/ton during seasonal peak seasons, mainly due to the huge price elasticity brought by short - term supply - demand mismatch of liquid chemicals [2]. - In the second half of the year, focus on stocking in the alumina and export directions, and the stocking during the "Golden September and Silver October" in non - aluminum sectors. When the national sample inventory is below 300,000 tons, caustic soda is prone to a shortage situation [2]. - The future trend of caustic soda will show a large futures discount structure, making it difficult for manufacturers to hedge. Eventually, the futures price will make up the discount as the delivery approaches and then continue to face pressure. In the case of weak demand expectations, the current logic of shorting profits cannot be falsified. However, from an absolute valuation perspective, low prices will stimulate downstream stocking, and seasonal demand support still exists. Therefore, one can participate in positive spreads at the right time, but the core is to focus on the downstream stocking rhythm [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - As of June 26, 2025, the 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was priced at 780 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous period. After the main downstream reduced the purchase price of 32% caustic soda by 10 yuan to 750 yuan, most enterprises in the province have not followed up, but some enterprises' inventories have increased, and the short - term price is expected to remain stable [1]. Market Condition Analysis - The decline in caustic soda futures price is mainly due to Shandong alumina enterprises cutting purchase prices. The 07 contract is facing delivery, with few warehouse receipts and futures price making up the discount, resulting in a short - term market rebound [2]. - In the second half of the year, the high - profit and high - production pattern will affect caustic soda. Shorting profits is an annual - level strategy. With a large discount, the short - term decline space is limited, waiting for spot price drop and basis convergence [2]. - Caustic soda has rebound potential. In the past three years, there were profits over 1000 yuan/ton during seasonal peak seasons due to short - term supply - demand mismatch of liquid chemicals [2]. - In the second half, focus on stocking in alumina, export, and non - aluminum sectors during "Golden September and Silver October". A national sample inventory below 300,000 tons may lead to a caustic soda shortage [2]. Strategy - The caustic soda futures will show a large discount structure, making hedging difficult for manufacturers. The futures price will make up the discount before delivery and then face pressure. In weak demand expectations, shorting profit logic holds. Low prices can stimulate downstream stocking, and one can participate in positive spreads by timing, focusing on downstream stocking rhythm [2][3].