宝城期货资讯早班车-20250626

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 5.4% year-on-year, consistent with the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year [1] - In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up from 49.0% in the previous month but the same as the same period last year; the non-manufacturing business activity PMI was 50.3%, down from 50.4% in the previous month and 51.1% in the same period last year [1] - In May 2025, the year-on-year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12.1%, 2.3%, and 7.9% respectively, with M1 and M2 showing an upward trend compared to the previous month [1] - In May 2025, new RMB loans from financial institutions were 620 billion yuan, an increase from 280 billion yuan in the previous month but a decrease from 950 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - In May 2025, the CPI was -0.1% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month but down from 0.3% in the same period last year; the PPI was -3.3% year-on-year, a decline from -2.7% in the previous month and -1.4% in the same period last year [1] - In May 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3.7%, down from 4.0% in the previous month and the same period last year; the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 5.0%, up from 4.7% in the previous month and 4.1% in the same period last year [1] - In May 2025, exports increased by 4.8% year-on-year, a decline from 8.1% in the previous month and 7.41% in the same period last year; imports decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, a larger decline than -0.2% in the previous month and 2.14% in the same period last year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - The Shanghai Futures Exchange is seeking public comments on the futures contracts, options contracts, and business rules of offset printing paper. The introduction of offset printing paper futures and options is expected to meet the risk management needs of the pulp and paper industry [2] - The US will hold talks with Iran on a potential nuclear agreement next week. Trump is "very sure" that the military conflict between Israel and Iran has ended, but the conflict may resume [2] - Fed Chair Powell said that if the US labor market weakens and inflation falls, the Fed may cut interest rates in advance. The futures market shows a 23% probability of a rate cut in July and a higher probability in September [2] - As Trump's "tariff deadline" on July 9 approaches, the EU is preparing more tariff countermeasures. US foreign direct investment has declined significantly, and the US trade deficit from January to May may hit a record [3] 2.2 Metals - On June 25, domestic gold jewelry prices generally fell. For example, Chow Tai Fook's gold jewelry price dropped to 998 yuan per gram, a decrease of 14 yuan per gram from the previous day [4] - India plans to discuss locking in copper supplies from resource - rich countries in ongoing trade negotiations and is considering measures to increase domestic refined copper production. India imports over 90% of its copper concentrate, and the dependence is expected to rise to 97% by 2047 [5] - The US imposed a 50% tariff on various steel household appliances on June 23, which will increase costs for US businesses and consumers [5] - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for the average price of LME copper in the second half of 2025 to $9,890 per ton, higher than the previous forecast of $9,140 [5] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of mid - June, the price of coking coal (main coking coal) in the circulation field decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, reaching a record low of 1,096.4 yuan per ton [6] - As of mid - June, the price of rebar (HRB400E Φ20mm) in the circulation field decreased by 0.02% month - on - month, reaching the lowest level since mid - August 2024 at 3,110.4 yuan per ton [6] - In May, the global crude steel production of 70 countries/regions was 158.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. China's crude steel production was 86.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%; India's was 13.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [6] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - International oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 5.836 million barrels last week, exceeding expectations. Oil prices may remain range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policy changes [7] - The US natural gas inventory is expected to increase by 88 billion cubic meters last week according to the EIA report [8] - Trump said that China can continue to buy oil from Iran and hopes China will also buy a large amount of oil from the US. China will take reasonable energy security measures based on its national interests [8] 2.5 Agricultural Products - As of mid - June, the price of soybeans (yellow soybeans) in the circulation field increased by 0.85% month - on - month, reaching the highest level since mid - September 2024 at 4,390.1 yuan per ton [9] - As of mid - June, the price of cotton (Grade 3 white lint) in the circulation field increased by 1.7% month - on - month, reaching the highest level since late March at 14,284.1 yuan per ton [9] - Malaysia set the reference price of crude palm oil for July at 3,730.48 ringgit per ton, with an export tax rate of 8.5% [9] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On June 25, the central bank conducted 365.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate, with a net investment of 209 billion yuan after deducting the 156.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase due on the same day [10] 3.2 Important News - Premier Li Qiang said at the 2025 Summer Davos Forum that China will continue to actively integrate into the global market and contribute to world economic development [11][12] - Vice - Premier He Lifeng pointed out that efforts should be made to build a unified national market, expand domestic demand, and promote the innovation and development of high - end equipment manufacturing and other industries [12] - Minister of Finance Lan Fuan reported that from January to May, the issuance of treasury bonds was 6.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 38.5%; new local government bonds were 1.98 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 36.6%; and refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts were 1.63 trillion yuan, accounting for 81.5% of the annual quota [12] - The front - page article of China Securities Journal stated that in the first half of 2025, China's policies to expand domestic demand have boosted economic growth. Policies to trade in old consumer goods for new ones have been effective, and service consumption has grown significantly [13] - The Securities Association of China is conducting a survey on the regulatory system of bond market intermediaries and investor protection systems [13] - Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region issued an implementation opinion on optimizing the management mechanism of government special bonds, including requirements for project support and risk prevention [13] - Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region formulated a debt resolution plan for Liuzhou [14] - Bond market yields have generally declined recently, and most short - term pure bond funds and some medium - and long - term pure bond funds have reached new highs. However, whether the bond market can turn bullish depends on policy implementation [14] - Chengdu Jiaozi Financial Holding Group issued a 1.5 - billion - yuan corporate bond for the elderly, with a 5 - year term and an interest rate of 1.91%, setting a record low for the same - term corporate bonds in Sichuan [15] - The expansion project of Huaxia Beijing Affordable Housing REIT was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, marking the further formation of the "initial offering + expansion" dual - wheel drive pattern in the public REITs market [15] - Trump is considering appointing a new Fed Chair in September or October, with potential candidates including Warsh and Hassett [16] - Fed Chair Powell said that the economic situation is highly uncertain, and the Fed will base its decisions on actual data. The US economy is performing better than others, and the Fed may resume rate cuts at some point [17] - Morgan Stanley predicts that due to tariff policies and immigration control, the Fed will not cut interest rates in 2025 but will start cutting in March 2026, with a total of seven rate cuts throughout the year [17] - There were a series of bond - related events, including investigations into corporate executives, court - approved restructuring plans, regulatory filings, and credit rating adjustments [18] - Moody's and other rating agencies made rating adjustments to some companies, and Fitch predicted that the global petrochemical industry's downturn may last until 2028 [18] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market showed narrow fluctuations, with most yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rising. The 30 - year bond futures contract fell 0.22% [19] - In the exchange - listed bond market, some bonds rose, and the Wande Real Estate Bond 30 Index and Wande High - Yield Urban Investment Bond Index both rose 0.02% [20] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed up 0.80% at 441.46 points, reaching a new high since April 13, 2015 [20] - On June 25, most money market interest rates rose, and Shibor short - end varieties also increased [21] - The winning bid yields of Agricultural Development Bank's 1.074 - year, 3 - year, and 10 - year financial bonds were 1.4076%, 1.6739%, and 1.7537% respectively [22] - European bond yields generally rose, while US bond yields declined across the board, driven by Powell's rate - cut signal and concerns about inflation and the economy [23] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB closed at 7.1713 against the US dollar on June 25, up 68 points from the previous trading day. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1668, down 12 points from the previous trading day [24] - The US dollar index fell 0.28% in late New York trading, and most non - US currencies rose [24] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed - Income said that the current consumption situation is that policy - driven consumption is strong, while endogenous momentum is weak. Short - term consumption momentum may slow down, but there is still room for policy in the medium term [25] - Ming Ming of CITIC Securities said that considering the possible acceleration of government bond issuance in the third quarter, the central bank may take measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts to provide liquidity support [25] 3.6 Today's Reminder - On June 26, 267 bonds will be listed, 182 bonds will be issued, 147 bonds will have payments due, and 154 bonds will pay principal and interest [27] 4. Stock Market News - On Wednesday, the A - share market continued to rebound with heavy trading volume, led by the large - finance sector. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.04% to 3,455.97 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.72%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.11% [28] - The Hang Seng Index rose 1.23% to 24,474.67 points, and the net purchase of southbound funds was HK$9.574 billion. Guotai Junan International and SMIC received significant net purchases [28] - Guotai Junan International was approved to upgrade its securities trading license to provide virtual asset trading services, and its stock price soared 198.4%. Many other Chinese - funded brokers in Hong Kong are also applying for relevant licenses [28] - Foreign institutions have been actively researching A - share listed companies, mainly in industries such as electronics, machinery, and computers. Since June, 76 A - share companies have received foreign institutional research, and 30 of them have received at least 3 foreign institutions [28] - China Pacific Insurance's private equity fund with 20 billion yuan has been officially registered and will enter the market [29] - Li Ka - shing's son Richard Li's FWD Group may start the book - building process as early as Thursday, with an expected IPO of about $500 million and an Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund as a cornerstone investor [29] - TSMC's overseas subsidiary plans to issue $10 billion in new shares to strengthen its foreign exchange hedging business [29]