中原期货晨会纪要-20250626

Report Overview - The report is the 114th issue of the Morning Meeting Minutes in 2025, released on June 26, 2025, by Zhongyuan Futures Research Institute [2]. 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economic and political situation is complex, with international trade patterns changing, geopolitical conflicts affecting the market, and China's domestic policies focusing on expanding domestic demand and promoting economic development [7][8]. - The commodity market shows different trends. Agricultural products are in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices fluctuating slightly; energy - chemical products have different price movements due to factors such as supply and demand changes and policy expectations; industrial metals are affected by factors such as inventory and demand, with prices mostly in a state of shock; the stock and option markets are also affected by various factors, and investors need to pay attention to market trends and policy changes [4][12][18]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Chemical Industry - Price Changes: On June 26, 2025, in the chemical industry, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, plastic, etc. rose, while crude oil, fuel oil, PTA, etc. fell. For example, natural rubber rose 135.0 to 13,905.00, with a rise - fall rate of 0.980%, and crude oil fell 3.80 to 504.80, with a rise - fall rate of - 0.747% [4]. 3.2 Macro News - International: Premier Li Qiang of the State Council attended the opening ceremony of the 2025 Summer Davos Forum and stated China's stance on economic globalization. US President Trump mentioned negotiations with Iran on a potential nuclear agreement and expressed his views on the Israel - Iran conflict. He also said that China can continue to buy oil from Iran and hopes China will also buy a large amount of oil from the US [7][8]. - Domestic: China is accelerating the construction of a unified national market, expanding domestic demand, and promoting innovation in various fields such as medicine and new energy vehicles. For example, the state is promoting the development of high - end equipment manufacturing, smart photovoltaics, etc., and the National Medical Products Administration is taking measures to speed up the approval of innovative drugs and medical devices [8]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: In a pattern of weak supply and demand, with slow inventory removal and poor downstream demand, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach [12]. - Oils and Fats: On June 24, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased significantly. With the expected end of the Israel - Iran conflict, the oil market is expected to be under pressure, and short - selling is recommended [12]. - Sugar: The international sugar price is suppressed by Brazil's peak - season sugar pressing, while the domestic market has support from low inventory and the upcoming summer consumption season. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels in the 5750 - 5800 range and pay attention to the support at 5700 [12]. - Corn: The market is in a state of mixed long and short factors. With factors such as the strong price - holding attitude of traders in the Northeast and the weakening demand from feed and deep - processing enterprises, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. - Pigs: The overall supply is relatively stable, and the futures market is affected by policy expectations and supply concerns. The main 09 contract is testing the pressure in the 13800 - 14000 range [14]. - Eggs: In the short term, the supply is sufficient and the demand is weak. In the medium term, there are expectations of supply - demand transformation. The futures market is expected to remain volatile, waiting for long - entry opportunities [14]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The domestic urea market price has risen slightly. With some enterprises planning to shut down for maintenance at the end of the month, supply is expected to decrease. Attention should be paid to export policies and agricultural demand [14]. - Caustic Soda: The market sentiment is weak, and the price is expected to continue to run at a low level due to the lack of strong fundamental support [14]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Affected by factors such as safety inspections and environmental protection, the market sentiment has improved, but the overall demand is still weak, and the short - term trend is stable and volatile [14][16]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: Copper inventory has decreased, and the price is under pressure at the 80,000 - yuan level. Aluminum inventory has increased slightly, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate [16]. - Alumina: The fundamentals are expected to remain relatively loose in the short term, and the price is expected to decline slightly and run at a low level in the medium term [16]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The spot market is in a wait - and - see state, with weak trading volume. Rebar inventory has increased, and hot - rolled coil inventory has decreased slightly. Steel prices are under pressure but may fluctuate due to the improvement of the macro - environment [16]. - Ferroalloys: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have rebounded strongly, and the basis has narrowed rapidly. They are expected to follow the overall upward trend of commodities in the short term [16][18]. - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamentals are in an oversupply situation. It is recommended to wait and see, and if the price stabilizes above 61,000 yuan, a small - position long - entry can be considered [18]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index: The A - share market has risen strongly, and the international stock market shows different trends. With the easing of geopolitical conflicts, the domestic market risk appetite has increased. Investors should pay attention to trading volume, the performance of the non - banking financial sector, and the formation of leading sectors [18][20]. - Options: For trend investors, it is recommended to go long on the CSI 1000 and short on the SSE 50 for arbitrage. For volatility investors, it is recommended to hold a long - straddle position to bet on increased volatility [21][23].