豆类油脂早报-20250626

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear report industry investment rating provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view for most of the agricultural commodity futures in the report is "oscillating weakly" in the short - term and "strong" in the medium - term, including soybean meal and palm oil [5][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - Time - related Views: The intraday view is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5] - Core Logic: Geopolitical risks have cooled recently, and the weather in US soybean - producing areas has continuously improved. The price of US soybean futures shows obvious weather - driven fluctuations, with the price center moving down. The trading logic of the domestic soybean market remains unchanged, following the price fluctuations of US soybean futures. Short - term capital loosening intensifies the price fluctuations, causing the futures price to oscillate weakly [5] 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - Time - related Views: The intraday view is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [7] - Core Logic: The spill - over effect of the slowdown in the decline of international oil prices on the oil market has weakened. After the oil market returns to the fundamentals, the futures prices of the three major oils turn to oscillate weakly, and inventory pressure emerges. Domestic palm oil lacks its own driving force, follows the prices of other neighboring oils and international palm oil futures, and runs oscillating weakly in the short - term [7] 3.3. Other Related Futures Contracts - Soybean Meal 2509: The short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is strong, and the intraday view is oscillating weakly. The influencing factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [6] - Soybean Oil 2509: The short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is strong, and the intraday view is oscillating weakly. The influencing factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6] - Palm 2509: The short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is strong, and the intraday view is oscillating weakly. The influencing factors include the biodiesel attribute, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, the tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6]