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宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250626
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-06-26 02:05

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and copper futures, suggesting a short - term weakening for gold and a short - term strengthening for copper [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - View: Short - term: decline; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: decline; Overall: short - term bearish [1][3] - Core Logic: Recent significant drops in crude oil and gold, along with rallies in US and A - shares. The cease - fire between Iran and Israel has eased short - term geopolitical conflicts, increasing market risk appetite and pressuring gold prices. Gold prices rebounded after falling to the 60 - day moving average, indicating technical support. If the 60 - day moving average of Shanghai gold and New York gold is broken, gold may remain weak in the short term. Also, the decline in safe - haven demand may cause the gold - silver ratio to continue weakening [3]. Copper (CU) - View: Short - term: increase; Medium - term: increase; Intraday: increase; Overall: short - term bullish [1][4] - Core Logic: This week, copper prices have oscillated upwards, with an increase in open interest. The main futures price is approaching the 79,000 yuan mark, and the monthly spread continues to weaken. Short - term macroeconomic improvement has pushed up copper prices. Overseas macroeconomics have clearly improved since Tuesday due to the cease - fire between Iran and Israel, reducing safe - haven demand and increasing risk appetite. Crude oil and gold have significantly declined, while global equity and commodity markets have risen. In the context of the slowdown of US tariff policies and the cease - fire between Iran and Israel, market risk appetite may continue to rise, pushing up copper prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 80,000 yuan mark. If the market trades on the production - cut expectation again, the macro and industrial factors may resonate, and copper prices may perform well [4].