山西证券研究早观点-20250626

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic market indices showed positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,455.97, up by 1.04%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10,393.72, up by 1.72% [4] Group 2: Agricultural Sector Insights - The agricultural sector, particularly the pig farming industry, is experiencing a price increase, with average pig prices in key provinces showing a mixed trend. As of June 20, the average prices were 13.70, 15.54, and 14.38 CNY/kg in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan respectively [6] - The average pork price increased by 0.35% to 20.33 CNY/kg, while the average wholesale price for piglets rose by 3.17% to 28.00 CNY/kg [6] - The report highlights the potential recovery in the feed industry due to declining upstream raw material prices and improving downstream farming conditions, particularly for Haida Group [6] Group 3: Pig Farming Cycle Analysis - The report discusses the "pig cycle," emphasizing that it is fundamentally a capacity cycle rather than just a price cycle. The recovery of production capacity does not necessarily correlate with profitability, which depends on the speed of capacity recovery [6] - The report suggests that the current market may be overly pessimistic regarding the impact of production capacity recovery on profitability, potentially overlooking the positive effects of declining raw material costs and macroeconomic demand recovery in 2025 [6] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several pig farming stocks, including Wens Foodstuffs, Shennong Group, Juxing Agriculture, Tangrenshen, and New Hope, based on the anticipated recovery in profitability [6] - In the poultry sector, the report notes that the performance of Shengnong Development is at a low point in both earnings and price-to-book valuation, indicating good investment potential [6] Group 5: Biopharmaceutical Sector Insights - The report provides an update on the innovative drug Iza-bren, which has shown significant efficacy in treating NSCLC and SCLC patients. The overall response rate (ORR) for NSCLC patients was reported at 52.0%, with a disease control rate (DCR) of 86.7% [8][11] - Iza-bren has demonstrated good safety and anti-tumor activity across various patient groups, including those with EGFR mutations and other driver gene mutations [8][11] Group 6: Photovoltaic Industry Insights - The report indicates that the prices of photovoltaic components have remained stable, with the 182mm TOPCon double-glass component priced at 0.68 CNY/W. However, the market demand is expected to be low in July, leading to potential price pressures [10] - The report notes a significant increase in installed capacity for photovoltaic systems, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 150% in the first five months of the year [10]