华泰证券今日早参-20250626

Macro Overview - The report highlights the upcoming expiration of tariff exemptions, which may disrupt global trade, particularly as U.S. imports have shown a low-to-high trend since June, while South Korea's export growth has improved significantly [2] - U.S. consumer and employment markets are cooling, with weakened corporate confidence and persistent inflationary pressures, indicating potential trade volume disturbances as the July 9 tariff deadline approaches [2] Fixed Income Insights - Global liquidity has shifted, with funds flowing out of U.S. dollar assets back to local markets, leading to non-U.S. markets outperforming U.S. assets [3] - The report suggests that geopolitical tensions have eased, allowing funds to temporarily return to risk assets, while the basic economic outlook remains supportive of U.S. stock performance [3] Banking and Securities - The People's Bank of China and other departments have issued guidelines to support consumption, proposing 19 specific measures to boost the consumption sector [3] - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in quality regional banks and leading brokerage firms, emphasizing the positive policy outlook and expected economic recovery [3] Transportation Sector - The report recommends focusing on three main lines for the second half of 2025: high-volatility airline stocks, core assets benefiting from foreign capital inflow, and shipping opportunities amid tariff and geopolitical disturbances [5] - Specific stock recommendations include major airlines and logistics companies with strong competitive advantages and stable profitability [5] Pharmaceutical Sector - The 2025 ASCO conference showcased a significant increase in the participation of domestic innovative drugs, with approximately 67 studies presented, marking a 35% increase from 2024 [7] - Notable drugs such as IBI363 and MRG003 have shown promising data, indicating potential breakthroughs in treatment options [7] Mechanical Equipment - The report notes a transition in the domestic manufacturing cycle towards passive destocking, influenced by strategic emerging industries [5] - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on technological innovation and industry upgrades, particularly in AI, engineering machinery globalization, and new energy technologies [5]