招银国际每日投资策略-20250626

Market Overview - Chinese stock market experienced significant gains, led by brokerage stocks, as the People's Bank of China and six ministries reiterated efforts to promote long-term capital inflow and stabilize the capital market [1] - European stock markets declined, with NATO members committing to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, but the market may be entering a profit-taking phase as these expectations are already priced in [1] - US stock market saw slight increases, with technology, communication services, and healthcare sectors rising, while real estate and utilities fell [2] Company Analysis: GuoShengTang (固生堂) - GuoShengTang, a leader in China's private TCM service industry, demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 12.7% year-on-year increase in offline patient visits in Q1 2025, showing a month-on-month acceleration [6] - The company plans to accelerate store expansion, aiming to open 15-20 new stores in 2025, including both self-built and acquisitions, enhancing its market leadership in key regions [6] - GuoShengTang launched the first national TCM AI avatar, which utilizes deep learning from a renowned TCM expert, aiming to improve diagnostic quality and address the shortage of quality TCM resources [7] - The company has a strong focus on increasing self-paid revenue, with less than 30% of its income coming from insurance, and plans to expand treatment and self-paid herbal medicine income [8] - GuoShengTang returned 4.2 billion yuan to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in 2024, representing 137% of its net profit for that year, and continues to maintain a robust cash flow for shareholder returns [8] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 52.75 HKD, expecting revenue growth rates of 26.7%, 25.9%, and 25.0% for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [8] Company Analysis: Carote (卡罗特) - Carote's sales growth is expected to remain weak in Q2 2025, similar to Q1, with a forecasted single-digit growth due to high base effects from the previous year and ongoing macroeconomic challenges [9][10] - The company has adjusted its sales growth forecast for FY 2025 from 23% to 14%, anticipating a slowdown in demand in key markets like China and Europe [10] - Recent tariff increases on steel and aluminum products significantly impact Carote's gross margins, with total tariffs on exports to the US potentially reaching 73.3% [11] - The rating for Carote has been downgraded to "Hold" with a target price of 4.64 HKD, reflecting the anticipated decline in net profit and sales growth due to rising tariffs and weak demand [11]