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2025年上半年债券行情回顾:债市先抑后扬,信用利差收窄
Guoxin Securities·2025-06-26 02:47
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View In H1 2025, the bond market first declined and then rose, followed by narrow - range fluctuations. Credit bond yields followed government bond yields, rising first and then falling, with credit spreads narrowing. Default risks continued to decline, mainly concentrated in private enterprises and the real - estate industry. The risk of downgrades in the ChinaBond market's implied ratings increased slightly, while the amount of upgrades was significantly lower than the same period last year [11][41]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Valuation Curve: Short - term Yields Rose Significantly - Yield changes: In H1 2025, the yields of 1 - year government bonds, 10 - year government bonds, and 10 - year policy bank bonds changed by 27BP, - 3BP, and - 2BP respectively. The yields of 3 - year AAA, 3 - year AA +, 3 - year AA, and 3 - year AA - changed by 6BP, - 0BP, - 1BP, and - 23BP respectively. Credit spreads of 3 - year AAA, 3 - year AA +, 3 - year AA, and 3 - year AA - decreased by 15BP, 22BP, 23BP, and 45BP respectively [12]. - Overall situation: Yields of medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds generally rose, while long - term interest - rate bond yields declined slightly. Credit bond yields mostly declined. Credit spreads of various varieties narrowed, with lower - grade and shorter - term credit spreads narrowing more. The 10 - 1 curve flattened [12]. 3.2 Government Bond Yields First Rose and Then Fell - Jan - Mar mid: The central bank suspended government bond trading and reduced liquidity injection, tightening the money market. Short - term government bond yields rose rapidly, and long - term yields also increased, showing a "bear - flattening" trend. The 1 - year government bond yield reached a high of 1.59%, and the 10 - year government bond yield reached 1.90% [14][15]. - Mar late - Apr: The money market eased slightly, and due to the China - US tariff "tug - of - war", the 10 - year government bond yield quickly declined and fluctuated within the range of 1.63% - 1.67% [15]. - May: The central bank announced RRR cuts and interest rate cuts. The 1 - year government bond yield briefly declined. After the positive result of China - US tariff negotiations and some institutional redemptions of bond funds, the 10 - year government bond yield fluctuated slightly upward and returned to 1.70% [15]. - May end - Jun: The money market improved. The central bank announced repurchase operations in advance. The yields of 1 - year and 10 - year government bonds fluctuated downward in a narrow range, reaching a low of 1.635% [15]. 3.3 Credit Spreads: Credit Spreads of All Grades Fluctuated and Narrowed - Jan - Mar mid: Interest - rate bonds quickly rebounded and rose, causing credit spreads to narrow passively. Before the Two Sessions, market expectations of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts led to a brief widening of credit spreads. After the Two Sessions, credit spreads narrowed again [19]. - Mar end - Apr early: The bond market recovered, government bond yields declined rapidly, and credit spreads widened slightly [20]. - May: After the implementation of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, the money market loosened, and credit spreads narrowed again [20]. - Jun: The money market remained balanced and loose, short - term government bond yields declined, and credit spreads widened slightly [20]. - Overall: In H1 2025, 3 - year credit bonds of all grades first declined and then rose, followed by narrow - range fluctuations. Credit spreads narrowed overall, with short - term credit spreads narrowing faster [20]. 3.4 Slight Increase in the Risk of Downgrades in ChinaBond Market's Implied Ratings In H1 2025, the amount of credit bonds with downgraded ChinaBond market implied ratings was 175.1 billion, a slight year - on - year increase. The total amount of upgraded bonds was 114.8 billion, significantly lower than the same period last year. The proportion of urban investment bonds in the upgraded and downgraded samples was 24.3% and 2.8% respectively, both decreasing compared to the same period last year and the previous quarter [23]. 3.5 Default: Default Risks Declined, and the Default Rate of Real - Estate Bonds Decreased - In H1 2025, there was 1 new issuer with a first - time default. According to the broad default definition, the default amount was 6.5 billion, with a default rate of 0.02%, and the annualized default rate decreased significantly compared to previous years [2][29]. - Defaults were mainly concentrated in real - estate bonds and private enterprises. The real - estate bond default rate was 0.1%, with both the default scale and annualized default rate decreasing significantly year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. The private enterprise default rate was 0.5%, and the annualized default rate continued to decline quarter - on - quarter [34]. 3.6 Still Low Recovery Rate In H1 2025, defaulted bonds recovered a principal of 5.525 billion. From 2014 to now, defaulted bonds have repaid a principal of 120.4 billion, with a repayment rate of overdue principal of 11.9% [2][39].