Workflow
商品期权再拾增长动能,寻找不确定中的期权机会
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-06-26 03:15

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's commodity options market regained growth momentum in H1 2025, with cumulative trading volume reaching 595 million lots as of June 15, a significant year-on-year increase of 49% [1][14]. - Macroeconomic and market sentiment elevated the volatility of commodities, with historical and implied volatility showing distinct changes in different sectors [2][37]. - In H2 2025, uncertainties remain in tariff policies and the number and timing of Fed rate cuts. Different option strategies are recommended for various types of commodities [3]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025H1 Commodity Options Market Transaction Overview - The pace of new product launches in the commodity options market slowed down. Only one new product was launched in H1 2025, and several other products are expected to be launched this year [11]. - The market regained growth momentum, with daily average trading volume in each month of 2025 exceeding that of the same period in 2024. Most option varieties saw an increase in trading volume [14][18]. - The over - the - counter (OTC) commodity options market remained at the same level as last year, with a decline in trading volume and a "growth rate gap" compared to the on - exchange market [22]. 2. Volatility: Macroeconomic and Market Sentiment Elevate Commodity Volatility 2.1 Historical Volatility - Among 51 underlying futures, 18 varieties rose and 33 fell. Gold, tin, and manganese silicon had the largest increases, while alumina, industrial silicon, and glass had the largest decreases [29]. - The resonance in the commodity market was mainly due to changes in US tariff policies. The 20 - day historical volatility of the commodity index rose sharply in April and then declined [35]. 2.2 Implied Volatility - Overall, the implied volatility of crude oil, chemicals, and non - ferrous metals increased, while that of agricultural products decreased. Crude oil, styrene, and LPG had the largest increases, while iron ore, apples, and rapeseed oil had the largest decreases [37]. - Different sectors showed different implied volatility characteristics. For example, precious metals were affected by geopolitical and trade factors, and energy and chemical products were influenced by geopolitical and policy factors [43][45]. 3. PCR Sentiment Indicator - PCR is an important indicator reflecting market sentiment. Different types of PCR have different relationships with the price of the underlying asset [53]. - The PCR of China's commodity options has a certain indicative effect on the price trend of the underlying futures, but investors should consider multiple factors [63]. 4. H2 2025 Outlook and Option Strategy Recommendations 4.1 International Macroeconomic Environment Outlook - In H2 2025, the impact mechanism of tariffs on the commodity market will change. Key factors to watch include tariff negotiations, US fiscal and monetary policies, and geopolitical situations [66]. - Trump's tariff policy aims to reduce the trade deficit, relieve fiscal pressure, and restrict the development of trading partners. The "Big Beautiful Act" may increase the US fiscal deficit [67][71]. - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate unchanged, adjusted its economic forecast, and the future policy path depends on economic data [74]. 4.2 Domestic Macroeconomic Environment Outlook - China's economy showed strong growth resilience in H1 2025, but price drivers were weak. CPI was weak, while core CPI was more resilient, and PPI continued to decline [81]. - Consumption showed resilience but its sustainability is uncertain. The "trade - in" policy boosted consumption in the short term but may lead to demand overdraft [87][88]. - Exports were strong in H1 but may face headwinds in H2 due to uncertainties in international trade [92][94]. - Real estate investment continued to adjust at the bottom, while infrastructure investment remained strong. New policy - based financial tools are expected to support infrastructure investment [96][97]. 4.3 Option Strategy Recommendations for Some Varieties - For gold and crude oil, investors should focus on opportunities in rising and falling volatility, using strategies such as buying straddles or strangles during policy - driven events and selling options after extreme market conditions [99][101]. - For oversupplied varieties such as black building materials and new energy metals, bear spread and synthetic short futures strategies are recommended [103][104]. - For varieties with potential unilateral upward trends such as copper and oils, buying call options for left - hand side layout is recommended, and a combination of selling wide straddles can be used initially to reduce costs [107][109].