氯碱日报：供需格局仍偏弱，PVC低位震荡-20250626

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core Views - The PVC market remains in a weak supply - demand situation, with the supply surplus unchanged and cost - side support weak, while the caustic soda market faces increasing supply pressure and lack of positive drivers [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,871 yuan/ton (+27), the East China basis was - 141 yuan/ton (-27), and the South China basis was - 41 yuan/ton (-17) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,730 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,830 yuan/ton (+10) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 130 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production was - 494 yuan/ton (+18), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production was - 640 yuan/ton (-80), and the PVC export profit was - 1.0 US dollars/ton (+10.3) [1] - Inventory and开工: PVC factory inventory was 40.2 million tons (+0.5), social inventory was 35.5 million tons (+0.0), the calcium carbide - based PVC开工 rate was 79.62% (-0.83%), the ethylene - based PVC开工 rate was 69.23% (+1.87%), and the overall PVC开工 rate was 76.74% (-0.09%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 64.8 million tons (+1.0) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,279 yuan/ton (+5), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 159 yuan/ton (-5) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,300 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,446 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 783.3 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 111.28 yuan/ton (+20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,233.53 yuan/ton (-50.51) [2] - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 36.65 million tons (-3.88), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.85 million tons (+0.00), and the caustic soda开工 rate was 81.20% (+0.30%) [2] - Downstream开工: The alumina开工 rate was 80.74% (-0.13%), the dyeing and printing East China开工 rate was 60.73% (-0.63%), and the viscose staple fiber开工 rate was 80.80% (+0.24%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The supply - demand pattern remains weak, with the supply surplus unchanged due to high production and expected new capacity in 6 - 7 months, and the cost - side support is weak. The downstream demand is weak domestically, while the export is increasing, but the sustainability of exports is uncertain [3] Caustic Soda - The supply pressure is expected to increase due to planned new capacity, the market trading is weak, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is shrinking. The demand of the main downstream alumina is increasing, but the non - aluminum downstream demand is weak. The factory inventory is still high, and the caustic soda market lacks positive drivers [3] Strategy - PVC: Adopt a cautiously bearish approach and continue to monitor macro - export policies and downstream demand recovery [4] - Caustic Soda: The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali still has room to compress, with the market remaining under pressure [4]