碳酸锂数据日报-20250626

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Report's Core View - The rebound of futures prices is mainly due to market rumors, but the credibility of these rumors is low and their impact on the fundamentals is limited. The current core contradiction lies in the downstream's "just - in - time procurement + multiple small - batch" approach and no obvious signs of production cuts. The price rebound provides hedging space for the lithium salt sector, further creating upward pressure. In the short term, the lithium carbonate futures prices are likely to be weak and fluctuate [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price: 60,200 yuan, up 300 yuan [1] - SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price: 58,600 yuan, up 300 yuan [1] - Price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate: 1,600 yuan [2] 2. Lithium Carbonate Futures - Lithium carbonate 2507 closing price: 61,180 yuan, up 1.02% [1] - Lithium carbonate 2508 closing price: 60,880 yuan, up 0.89% [1] - Lithium carbonate 2509 closing price: 60,800 yuan, up 0.96% [1] - Lithium carbonate 2510 closing price: 60,740 yuan, up 0.76% [1] - Lithium carbonate 2511 closing price: 60,740 yuan, up 1.2% [1] 3. Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China, Li2O: 5.5% - 6%): 619 yuan, up 2 yuan [1] - Lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%): 685 yuan, up 20 yuan [2] - Lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%): 1,210 yuan, up 20 yuan [2] - Phosphorus lithium aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%): 4,875 yuan, down 350 yuan [2] - Phosphorus lithium aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%): 5,725 yuan, down 350 yuan [2] 4. Cathode Material Prices - Lithium iron phosphate (power type) average price: 30,230 yuan, up 70 yuan [2] - Ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) average price: 142,690 yuan, down 70 yuan [2] - Ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) average price: 114,225 yuan, up 50 yuan [2] - Ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) average price: 120,305 yuan, down 70 yuan [2] 5. Price Spreads - Price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract: - 680 yuan, up 120 yuan [2] - Price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract: 100 yuan, down 20 yuan [2] - Price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract: 300 yuan, down 20 yuan [2] 6. Inventory - Total inventory (weekly, tons): 134,901 tons, up 1,352 tons [2] - Smelter inventory (weekly, tons): 58,625 tons, up 972 tons [2] - Downstream inventory (weekly, tons): 40,366 tons, down 320 tons [2] - Other inventory (weekly, tons): 35,910 tons, up 700 tons [2] - Registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons): 22,370 tons, down 5 tons [2] 7. Profit Estimation - Cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally: 60,147 yuan, profit: - 786 yuan [3] - Cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally: 64,891 yuan, profit: - 7,024 yuan [3] 8. Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to promote local processing [3]