燃料油日报：盘面进入震荡，市场短期驱动有限-20250626

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - With the easing of the Middle East situation, the premium of crude oil has rapidly declined, and the energy sector has dropped significantly. The crude oil and fuel oil markets may re - enter the fundamental - driven stage [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: The monthly spread structure has weakened, reflecting sufficient supply in the spot market. Although there is support from the power generation demand in summer, the cracking spread needs to be further adjusted to attract incremental demand from refineries [1]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term supply pressure is limited, and downstream demand provides short - term support. However, in the medium - term, the market share will be gradually replaced, and domestic production is expected to increase [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Futures prices: The night - session closing price of the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures dropped 0.3% to 3011 yuan/ton, and that of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 0.49% to 3709 yuan/ton [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: The monthly spread structure has weakened recently, and the weak profit of downstream refineries restricts procurement demand. With the approaching of summer, the power generation demand in the Middle East and Egypt is increasing. In June, China's high - sulfur fuel oil arrivals may increase, and the consumption tax deduction ratio may be adjusted upwards, which may drive the refinery demand to recover from a low level [1]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term supply pressure is limited, and the domestic production in May was at a low level. Singapore's marine fuel sales in May increased significantly. But in the medium - term, the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry will replace its market share, and domestic production is expected to rise after the end of the refinery maintenance season [2]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Other strategies (cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, options): None [3]