2025年中期家用电器行业投资策略报告：内有支撑，外有应对-20250626

Core Insights - The home appliance industry is expected to benefit from the "old-for-new" policy, which is anticipated to drive significant sales growth in Q4 2024 and continue into 2025, supported by the gradual release of special bond quotas [1][2] - The real estate sector's post-cycle recovery is expected to bolster demand for appliance upgrades, with a notable increase in second-hand home transactions contributing to sales support [1][2] - Despite challenges from tariff wars, China's home appliance exports are projected to maintain growth due to the country's position as the world's largest producer and seller, with a low dependency on the U.S. market [1][2] Market Review - In H1 2025, the home appliance sector experienced a decline of 3.2%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 1.55% [14] - The total market capitalization of public funds in the home appliance sector was approximately 120.37 billion yuan at the end of Q1 2025, remaining stable compared to Q4 2024, but showing a slight decrease in allocation ratio [15] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the home appliance index is at 13.58, indicating a historically low valuation level, suggesting a high cost-performance ratio for investors [19] Domestic Sales - The demand for new appliance configurations is expected to weaken due to a decline in housing completions, while upgrade demand is anticipated to drive domestic sales growth [26][29] - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with policies aimed at supporting the sector expected to positively impact downstream demand for home appliances [29] - The penetration rate of major appliances is high, with many units entering their replacement cycle, further supporting sales [39] Export Market - In 2024, the export volume and value of home appliances increased by 20.8% and 14.1% year-on-year, respectively, with a continued upward trend in early 2025 due to the "export rush" effect [9] - The export growth is expected to remain resilient despite tariff uncertainties, as China's home appliance exports have a low dependency on the U.S. market and are supported by rising demand in emerging markets [9][42] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading white goods companies with stable operations and global layouts, as well as opportunities for valuation recovery in companies related to the real estate sector as risks ease [1][2]