化工日报：天然橡胶社会库存环比继续回升-20250626

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU is rated neutral, NR is rated neutral, and BR is rated neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply - demand situation of natural rubber and synthetic rubber is weak. The price of rubber is expected to run weakly at a low level. The fundamentals of BR show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it generally fluctuates with the price of upstream raw materials [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 13,770 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 11,810 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 13,750 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 13,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,685 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,625 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - Tire enterprises: In the second half of the month, the overall shipment of semi - steel tire enterprises did not improve, with great pressure on domestic market purchases, and the export market still provided support. Many enterprises continued to control production. The performance of all - steel tire enterprises was relatively stable, and individual factories planned to withdraw previous promotion policies next month [2] - Production: In May 2025, the output of rubber tire casings in China was 101.993 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. From January to May, the output was 4.88962 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. The output of synthetic rubber in May was 699,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. From January to May, the cumulative output was 3.534 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [2] - Sales: In May 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.932 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and a month - on - month increase of 10.1%. From January to May, the cumulative retail sales reached 8.811 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9.1% [2] - Export: In May 2025, the export volume of truck and bus tires in China was 437,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% and a year - on - year increase of 12.93%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume was 1.9275 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.85%. The average export price in May was 2,095.8 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.56% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On June 25, 2025, the RU basis was - 20 yuan/ton (- 5), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 70 yuan/ton (+ 5), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 6,473 yuan/ton (+ 97.48), the NR basis was 266 yuan/ton (+ 18) [4] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 65.69 Thai baht/kg (- 0.06), Thai glue was 57.50 Thai baht/kg (- 0.25), Thai cup lump was 47.20 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.05), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 10.30 Thai baht/kg (- 0.30) [4] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.39% (+ 2.69%), and that of semi - steel tires was 71.54% (+ 1.56%) [4] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,286,145 tons (+ 7,842), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 617,288 tons (+ 10,313), the RU futures inventory was 192,840 tons (- 230), and the NR futures inventory was 32,256 tons (- 2,620) [4] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On June 25, 2025, the BR basis was 75 yuan/ton (+ 5), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 9,600 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quoted price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (- 300), the quoted price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,350 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,300 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,034 yuan/ton (- 70) [4] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.32% (+ 1.30%) [4] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,370 tons (- 450), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,650 tons (+ 700) [5] Strategy - For natural rubber (RU and NR), the overall supply - demand is weak. The rubber price is expected to run weakly at a low level. Attention should be paid to rainfall in major production areas, the inflow of alternative - planted rubber, and the change in downstream tire factory procurement intentions [5] - For butadiene rubber (BR), the fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand. It generally fluctuates with the price of upstream raw materials and is mainly affected by geopolitics recently. It is recommended to participate with caution [5]