郑糖期价延续反弹，纸浆走势依旧偏弱

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][4][7] 2. Core Views - Cotton: The international market shows a decrease in global cotton production and consumption in the 25/26 season, with a decline in ending stocks. US cotton has seen improved drought conditions but a worsening in seedling conditions. Domestically, commercial cotton inventories are rapidly decreasing, but new - year planting area is increasing, and demand is entering the off - season [2] - Sugar: The Brazilian new - season supply is expected to increase, and the production in India and Thailand in the Northern Hemisphere is also expected to rise. The supply pressure is already reflected. Zhengzhou sugar's domestic sales progress is fast, and it may follow the external market to rebound slightly, but the increase in imports will suppress the rebound space [4] - Pulp: The supply of pulp is abundant, with high port inventories. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, and downstream demand is weak. Although the delivery rules have changed, the pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [6][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,645 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton (+0.26%). The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,832 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton. As of June 22, 2025, India's weekly cotton market volume was 174,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 501%, and the cumulative market volume in the 2024/25 season was 4.9075 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5% [1] - Market Analysis: Internationally, the USDA report adjusted down global cotton production and consumption in the 25/26 season, and ending stocks decreased. US cotton has improved drought but worsened seedling conditions. Domestically, commercial inventories are rapidly decreasing, but new - year planting area is increasing, and demand is in the off - season [2] - Strategy: Neutral. The tariff policy is uncertain, and the market is affected by weather. There is a strong expectation of a domestic cotton harvest in the new year, and demand is weakening [2] Sugar - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5757 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton (+0.82%). The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6070 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. It is predicted that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 season will be 590 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%, but the sugar production is expected to reach 41.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7% [2][3] - Market Analysis: The Brazilian new - season supply is expected to increase, and the production in India and Thailand in the Northern Hemisphere is also expected to rise. The supply pressure is already reflected. Zhengzhou sugar's domestic sales progress is fast, and it may follow the external market to rebound slightly, but the increase in imports will suppress the rebound space [4] - Strategy: Neutral. Zhengzhou sugar mainly follows the trend of raw sugar. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production estimate and domestic import rhythm [4] Pulp - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5070 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton (-1.29%). The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The import pulp spot market price continued to decline [5] - Market Analysis: The suspension of the "Bratsk" brand pulp for delivery has intensified market fluctuations, but the pressure on the near - month contract from old "Bratsk" pulp remains. The supply is abundant, with high port inventories, and demand is in the seasonal off - season, and downstream demand is weak [6] - Strategy: Neutral. Although the delivery rules have changed, the 09 contract is still mainly priced by "Bratsk" and "Ural" pulp. The industry lacks positive drivers, and the pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [7]