计算机行业25年中期策略报告：看好AI产业链及应用落地-20250626

Investment Logic - The computer sector's downstream demand is primarily domestic, focusing on G-end and large B-end, with valuation fluctuations significantly impacting market capitalization more than fundamentals, indicating strong thematic investment attributes. The report emphasizes finding opportunities that can transition from thematic investment to growth investment, aiming for high earnings growth and valuation enhancement, referred to as the "Davis Double-Click" [3] - Considering the marginal changes in both domestic and overseas environments, the report highlights a strong outlook for the AI industry chain and its application in 2025. The external environment faces great power competition and export controls, while the internal focus is on technology leading the way, balancing high-quality development with high-level security. In the computer field, the AI industry chain represents the intersection and focus of both aspects [3] - The report identifies four key segments within the AI industry chain: 1. Computing Power: Domestic and international CSP leading manufacturers are entering a high prosperity phase in Capex spending, with opportunities for domestic substitution. Major US CSPs have seen rapid increases in capital expenditures since 2022, while domestic leaders are expected to follow suit from the second half of 2023 [3][5] 2. Models: While overseas manufacturers maintain a lead, domestic firms are accelerating their catch-up efforts, with improvements expected in agent performance. Domestic companies like Alibaba and ByteDance are rapidly advancing, leveraging open-source strategies to facilitate application deployment [3][25] 3. Data: Data quality directly impacts model performance, with policies promoting the circulation of data elements. The industry is exploring synthetic data and small model development, with several listed companies already recognizing data asset revenues [3][15] 4. Applications: AI hardware and applications across consumer, business, and government sectors are deepening their deployment. Notable growth is seen in smart driving, robotics, and various software applications [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on AI deployment in the second half of 2025, with key stock picks including Hesai Technology, iFlytek, Maifushi, Yingshi Network, and Kingdee International [3] AI Computing Power - Domestic and international CSP manufacturers are experiencing rapid growth in Capex, closely following the pace of international leaders. For instance, Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu have shown significant increases in their capital expenditures since 2023, with ByteDance's projected Capex for 2024 nearing the combined total of the three [10][12] - The report indicates that the capital expenditures of major domestic CSPs are expected to continue rising, with Alibaba's Capex in Q1 2025 increasing by 126.7% year-on-year, and Tencent's by 91% [13] AI Models - Overseas leaders like OpenAI and Google remain at the forefront, with updates to flagship models expected to slow down due to various challenges. However, domestic companies are rapidly advancing, with significant improvements in model performance and application capabilities [26][29] - The report notes that domestic AI firms are actively developing and releasing new models, with a focus on enhancing performance and reducing development barriers through innovative architectures [30][32] Supply-Side Dynamics - The report highlights the acceleration of IPO processes among domestic computing power manufacturers, with companies like Haiguang and Zhongke Shuguang initiating strategic mergers to strengthen their market positions. This consolidation aims to address fragmentation in the domestic computing power ecosystem and enhance competitiveness against international players [16][17]