旺季需求或将驱动煤价上行

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [6] Core Views - The coal market is expected to see a rebound in prices driven by seasonal demand, with recent positive changes in port coal prices and structural shortages supporting this trend [2] - The report highlights the potential for increased coal demand due to rising temperatures and declining hydropower output, which may lead to higher thermal power consumption [3] - A reduction in coal imports is contributing to a marginal contraction in supply, further supporting the coal market [4] Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of June 25, the prices for CCI5500/5000/4500 thermal coal have increased by 2/10/9 RMB per ton, reaching 617/546/481 RMB per ton respectively [2] - The average daily consumption of thermal coal in 25 provinces has risen by 2.1% and 5.2% year-on-year and month-on-month respectively [3] Demand Drivers - The report notes a 14.3% year-on-year decline in hydropower generation in May, while thermal power generation has turned positive with a growth rate of 1.2% [3] - The average temperature in major cities has increased by 15.7% from May to June, leading to a rise in electricity demand [3] Supply Dynamics - Coal imports for the first five months of 2024 reached 190 million tons, a decrease of 8.0% year-on-year, with Indonesian coal imports dropping significantly [4] - The report indicates that domestic coal production has contracted due to increased safety and environmental inspections, as well as maintenance shutdowns at some mines [2] Recommended Stocks - The report recommends investing in leading coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and China Coal Energy, which are expected to benefit from the seasonal rebound in thermal coal prices [2][9]