Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - For PX and PTA, due to cost collapse and valuation decline, a monthly spread reverse arbitrage is recommended, and holding long PX and short PTA positions is advised. PTA is entering a pattern of inventory accumulation as new installations are put into operation and polyester factories cut production [11]. - MEG's upside space may be limited. With the return of Iranian ethylene glycol plants and the concentrated restart of domestic coal - based plants, MEG is expected to be weak in the medium term [11]. - Rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly, mainly influenced by factors such as inventory changes and market sentiment [12]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the medium term, due to high supply and a supply growth rate exceeding the demand growth rate, fundamental pressure remains high [19]. - Asphalt is expected to have a weak and volatile trend, affected by factors such as production volume, inventory, and oil price fluctuations [20]. - LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Although there are factors such as conflict mitigation between Iran and Israel and weak demand, geopolitical issues may still cause repeated fluctuations [35]. - PP's spot price is falling, but low - price transactions are relatively good. The market is affected by factors such as futures trends, supply, and demand [40]. - Caustic soda is expected to have a short - term rebound as the near - month contract subsidizes the premium. In the second half of the year, the pattern of high profits and high production will continue to affect it [43]. - Pulp is expected to fluctuate, influenced by factors such as market supply and demand and inventory [47]. - Glass's original sheet price is stable, with most downstream enterprises purchasing on demand and the market in a wait - and - see state [53]. - Methanol is expected to fluctuate, affected by factors such as spot price, inventory, and trading volume [56]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to speculative factors. In the medium term, supply pressure and weak domestic demand are the main contradictions [61]. - Styrene is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the second half of the year, due to increased supply and weak demand, the high - profit state is difficult to maintain [64]. - Soda ash's spot market has little change, with weakening prices and general downstream demand [68]. - LPG's spot is firm, and its structure is strengthening, affected by factors such as futures prices, spreads, and industrial chain operating rates [73]. - PVC's trend is weak. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the market continues to short the chlor - alkali profit [85]. - Fuel oil's downward trend continues, and low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, with the spread between high - and low - sulfur spot prices in the external market reaching a phased high [90]. - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to operate weakly, affected by factors such as futures prices, freight rates, and exchange rates [92]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. PX, PTA, MEG - Fundamental Data: On June 25, 2025, PX's main contract closed at 6758, PTA's at 4790, and MEG's at 4323. The daily changes were 0.0%, 0.3%, and - 0.2% respectively. The PX (9 - 1) monthly spread was 206, PTA (9 - 1) was 178, and MEG (9 - 1) was - 14 [5]. - Market Overview: PX prices fell on the 25th, following the decline of upstream crude oil. The downstream polyester market provided limited support. Some PTA producers considered reducing their operating rates. However, the increase in PTA production capacity in the second half of the year may support PX prices [8]. - Market Outlook: PX and PTA are recommended for monthly spread reverse arbitrage. MEG's upside space is limited, and it is expected to be weak in the medium term [11]. 2. Rubber - Fundamental Data: On June 25, 2025, the rubber's main contract's daily - session closing price was 13,770 yuan/ton, the night - session closing price was 13,905 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 261,733 lots, and the open interest was 156,038 lots [14]. - Industry News: As of June 22, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 61.73 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.70%. The social inventory of natural rubber in China was 128.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% [15]. - Market Outlook: Rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly [12]. 3. Synthetic Rubber - Fundamental Data: On June 25, 2025, the main contract of cis - polybutadiene rubber closed at 11,225 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 63,768 lots and an open interest of 52,975 lots [17]. - Industry News: As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of high - cis polybutadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 3.41 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.34%. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports decreased slightly [17]. - Market Outlook: Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate in the short term and face fundamental pressure in the medium term [19]. 4. Asphalt - Fundamental Data: On June 25, 2025, BU2507 closed at 3,584 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22%, and BU2508 closed at 3,585 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22% [21]. - Market News: In July 2025, the domestic asphalt refinery's planned production volume was 148.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.2% and a year - on - year increase of 45.3%. As of June 23, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories decreased by 3.4%, and the inventory of 104 social warehouses decreased by 1.0% [32]. - Market Outlook: Asphalt is expected to have a weak and volatile trend [20]. 5. LLDPE - Fundamental Data: On June 25, 2025, L2509 closed at 7,271 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27%. The 09 - contract basis was 9, and the 09 - 01 monthly spread was 47 [35]. - Market Situation: The LLDPE market price partially declined. The futures market was weak, and the demand side was weak. Although there were some factors such as conflict mitigation between Iran and Israel, geopolitical issues may still cause repeated fluctuations [35]. - Market Outlook: LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short term [35]. 6. PP - Fundamental Data: On June 25, 2025, PP2509 closed at 7,084 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%. The 09 - contract basis was 46, and the 09 - 01 monthly spread was 58 [40]. - Market News: The domestic PP market declined by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The futures market was weak, and the downstream demand was general, but low - price transactions were relatively good [40]. - Market Outlook: The market is affected by factors such as futures trends, supply, and demand [40]. 7. Caustic Soda - Fundamental Data: On June 25, 2025, the price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous period [43]. - Market Situation: The futures price of caustic soda continued to fall due to the price cut of Shandong alumina enterprises. However, the 07 - contract is facing delivery, and the short - term market may rebound [43]. - Market Outlook: Caustic soda is expected to have a short - term rebound and face pressure in the second half of the year [43]. 8. Pulp - Fundamental Data: On June 25, 2025, the main contract of pulp closed at 5,070 yuan/ton during the day session and 5,072 yuan/ton during the night session. The trading volume was 299,380 lots, and the open interest was 165,019 lots [48]. - Industry News: The futures main contract SP2509 fell by 2.01% to 5,070 yuan/ton. Downstream paper mills' procurement volume decreased year - on - year, and port inventory remained high [49]. - Market Outlook: Pulp is expected to fluctuate [47]. 9. Glass - Fundamental Data: On June 25, 2025, FG509 closed at 1,017 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.20%. The 09 - contract basis was 995, and the 09 - 01 monthly spread was 1006 [54]. - Market News: The domestic float glass original sheet price was generally stable, with some small fluctuations. Most downstream enterprises purchased on demand, and the market was in a wait - and - see state [54]. - Market Outlook: Glass's original sheet price is stable [53]. 10. Methanol - Fundamental Data: On June 25, 2025, the main contract of methanol closed at 2,391 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 1,052,872 lots, and the open interest was 904,459 lots [57]. - Market News: The methanol spot price index decreased by 15.33. The port inventory increased significantly this week [59]. - Market Outlook: Methanol is expected to fluctuate [56]. 11. Urea - Fundamental Data: On June 25, 2025, the main contract of urea closed at 1,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 551,401 lots, and the open interest was 255,236 lots [61]. - Industry News: On June 25, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 109.59 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53%. In the short term, due to some off - market information, the market had a large - scale rebound [62]. - Market Outlook: Urea is expected to fluctuate in the short term and face supply pressure and weak domestic demand in the medium term [61]. 12. Styrene - Fundamental Data: On June 25, 2025, the price of styrene 2506 was 7,527 yuan/ton, an increase of 97 yuan compared to the previous day. The EB - BZ spread was 1315 [64]. - Market Situation: In the second half of the year, the supply of styrene is expected to increase significantly, and the demand is expected to be weak, leading to inventory accumulation and profit compression [66]. - Market Outlook: Styrene is expected to fluctuate in the short term [64]. 13. Soda Ash - Fundamental Data: On June 25, 2025, SA2509 closed at 1,173 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The 09 - contract basis was 127, and the 09 - 01 monthly spread was 12 [70]. - Market News: The domestic soda ash market was stable with a weakening trend. The supply decreased slightly, and downstream demand was general [70]. - Market Outlook: Soda ash's spot market has little change [68]. 14. LPG - Fundamental Data: On June 25, 2025, PG2508 closed at 4,226 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.73%, and PG2509 closed at 4,139 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.89%. The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 08 - contract was 574 [75]. - Market News: In July 2025, the expected price of Saudi CP propane decreased, and many PDH devices were under maintenance [82]. - Market Outlook: LPG's spot is firm, and its structure is strengthening [73]. 15. PVC - Fundamental Data: On June 25, 2025, the 09 - contract futures price was 4,871 yuan/ton, the East China spot price was 4,750 yuan/ton, the basis was - 121, and the 9 - 1 monthly spread was - 73 [85]. - Market Situation: The PVC market was affected by factors such as conflict mitigation between Iran and Israel, high production, and high inventory, with a weak trend [85]. - Market Outlook: PVC's trend is weak [85]. 16. Fuel Oil - Fundamental Data: On June 25, 2025, FU2508 closed at 2,999 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.88%, and LU2508 closed at 3,716 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.65%. The spread between LU08 and FU08 was 717 [90]. - Market Outlook: Fuel oil's downward trend continues, and low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil [90]. 17. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Fundamental Data: On June 25, 2025, EC2506 closed at 1,885.3 points, a decrease of 0.21%, EC2508 closed at 1,740.2 points, a decrease of 3.07%, and EC2510 closed at 1,292.8 points, a decrease of 2.31% [92]. - Market Outlook: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to operate weakly [92].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250626
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-06-26 05:59