华夏华电清洁能源（508016）申购价值分析报告

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the infrastructure project is the Hangzhou Huadian Jiangdong Natural Gas Combined Heat and Power Project, which has no active competition in the region, and its profitability is limited by fuel costs [2][3] - The REIT is expected to be listed on June 27, 2025, with an inquiry range of 2.532-3.796 CNY per share, corresponding to an initial P/FFO of 7.89-11.83 times, which is lower than the average of comparable REITs at 19.91 times [2][3] - The projected net cash distribution rates for 2025 and 2026 are 6.78% and 6.43%, respectively, with the 2025 forecast being lower than the average of comparable REITs at 11.33% [2][3] Group 2 - The underlying project is a natural gas combined heat and power project controlled by Huadian International Power Co., Ltd., featuring two sets of combined heat and power units with dual functions of power generation and heating [2][3] - The project is located in Hangzhou and aligns with local peak regulation plans, with significant growth in both power generation and heating sales [9][28] - The project has a stable natural gas procurement arrangement, but prices are significantly affected by high import dependence and geopolitical factors [29][33] Group 3 - The operational performance analysis shows that the project experienced a rebound in power generation in 2024, with a market transaction volume higher than the average of comparable REITs [3][42] - Revenue from power generation is the main source of income, with a significant increase in 2024 due to high temperatures and peak regulation demand [13][49] - The project’s profitability is relatively weak, with higher per-unit costs compared to comparable projects, primarily due to short-term procurement agreements for natural gas [54][57] Group 4 - The valuation comparison indicates that the discount rate is at a lower level compared to comparable REITs, and the asset appreciation rate is below the average [4][62] - The initial P/NAV is higher than the average of comparable REITs, with the estimated fundraising amount ranging from 1.266 to 1.898 billion CNY [2][4] - The project is backed by one of China's largest energy companies, Huadian International, which has a significant operational scale and a steady increase in profits [34][39]