江西省经济财政债务全梳理：化债与转型-20250626

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Jiangxi's economic and fiscal levels are in the middle in China, with a debt ratio in the upper - middle range. The province has achieved remarkable results in debt reduction and transformation, and its industrial transformation has initially shown results. The integration of industries through the transfer from developed regions will become an important growth point for Jiangxi's economy [1][2][4] - The overall debt pressure in Jiangxi is controllable, but there are differences in the fundamentals and debt pressures among cities. When choosing bonds, it is necessary to consider different risk preferences and bond maturities [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 江西省经济财政债务一览 3.1.1 江西区位概览 - Jiangxi is located in the southeast inland of China, on the south bank of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. It is adjacent to Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Hunan, Hubei, and Anhui. It is the hinterland of the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Minnan Triangle. It has convenient transportation with well - developed highways, railways, aviation, and waterways [11] 3.1.2 江西经济财政情况 - In 2024, Jiangxi's GDP was 3420.25 billion yuan, ranking 15th in China, with a GDP growth rate of 5.1%, ranking 18th. The per - capita GDP was 76,000 yuan, ranking 18th. The "14th Five - Year Plan" aims for an average annual GDP growth of about 7% [13] - In 2024, Jiangxi's general public budget revenue was 306.66 billion yuan, and the government - funded revenue was 181.39 billion yuan, ranking 17th and 14th respectively. The land - finance dependence was 37%, ranking 8th. The fiscal self - sufficiency rate was 40%, ranking 18th, and the tax revenue accounted for 64%, ranking 21st [17][19] 3.1.3 江西债务情况 - Considering narrow - sense hidden debts and local debts, Jiangxi's broad - caliber debt pressure is in the middle in China. Considering urban investment interest - bearing debts and local debts, Jiangxi's debt pressure is relatively high. In 2024, the interest - bearing debt scale of bond - issuing urban investment in Jiangxi was about 2.3 trillion yuan, ranking 9th in China [22] - The narrow - caliber debt ratio in 2024 was 139%, ranking 20th; the broad - caliber debt ratio was 288%, ranking 9th; the narrow - caliber debt - to - GDP ratio was 54%, ranking 17th; the broad - caliber debt - to - GDP ratio was 111%, ranking 6th [22] 3.2 江西省化债成果 - In 2024, Jiangxi improved the "1 + 9" implementation plan for preventing and resolving local debt risks, achieving a double decline in the number of financing platforms and the stock of operating financial debts, and completely eliminating high - risk debts, maintaining the status of the only province with zero bond defaults in China [2] - Since debt reduction in 2023, the growth of Jiangxi's urban investment debt has significantly declined. In 2024, the year - on - year growth was no more than 1%, lower than the national average [2] - In 2024, many places in Jiangxi achieved remarkable results in hidden debt reduction. For example, Jingdezhen completed the task of exiting financing platforms and eliminating hidden debts; Shangrao obtained 14.323 billion yuan of local government debt limits for replacing hidden debts; Ganzhou achieved a "double decline" in the number of financing platforms and debt scale; Yichun obtained over 26.2 billion yuan of debt - reduction policy quotas and reduced government investment project funds by 7.363 billion yuan [25] - In 2024, the proportion of bank loans, bonds, and non - standard debts in Jiangxi's urban investment debt was 56.2%, 31.5%, and 12.3% respectively. Compared with 2023, the financing structure was further optimized [25] 3.3 中部资源型省份——江西省产业结构分析 - Jiangxi is an important non - ferrous metal resource province. Non - ferrous metals, electronic information, and equipment manufacturing are important pillars of the industrial structure. The province has rich non - ferrous metal resources, and the electronic information and equipment manufacturing industries have also developed rapidly [29] - In 2023, Jiangxi launched the "1269" action plan for the modernization of the manufacturing industry, aiming to comprehensively improve the modernization level of 12 key manufacturing industrial chains, build 6 advanced manufacturing clusters, and achieve an average annual growth of about 9% in the operating income of industrial enterprises above the designated size [31] - Each prefecture - level city has clarified the development direction of key industries according to the "1269" action plan and local resource endowments [36] - The industrial transformation in Jiangxi has initially shown results. In 2024, the added value of high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing increased by 12.5% and 13.1% respectively. The digital economy added - value is expected to exceed 1.3 trillion yuan. However, there is still a gap compared with developed regions [4] 3.4 区域实力对比——经济、财政、债务分析 - In terms of economic aggregate in 2024, Nanchang had the highest GDP of 780 billion yuan, followed by Ganzhou with 494 billion yuan. The GDP of Jiujiang, Shangrao, and Yichun was around 400 billion yuan, while the GDP of Fuzhou and Ji'an was between 200 - 300 billion yuan, and the GDP of Yingtan, Pingxiang, Jingdezhen, and Xinyu was between 100 - 140 billion yuan [49] - In terms of fiscal revenue, Nanchang had the highest general public budget revenue of 52.6 billion yuan. Jiujiang and Ganzhou had similar revenues. Some cities have a high degree of land - finance dependence, such as Jingdezhen and Pingxiang [49] - The old revolutionary base areas in southern Jiangxi have received more policy support. The "Opinions on Supporting the Revitalization and Development of Old Revolutionary Base Areas in the New Era" provides multi - aspect policy support for the industrial revitalization of Jiangxi's old revolutionary base areas [53][54] 3.5 区域增长潜力如何——人口、收入和房价情况 - In 2024, Jiangxi's permanent population was 45.0201 million, with a growth of 0.49% in the past decade. The net population outflow was 5.02 million in 2023. The per - capita disposable income of urban residents in 2024 was 47,514 yuan, lower than that of some neighboring provinces and the national average [45] - Jiangxi actively undertakes industrial transfer from developed regions. In 2023, it issued a plan to integrate into the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Haixi Economic Zone. Some cities have achieved initial results in industrial cooperation [48] 3.6 区域金融资源如何——存贷款余额、金融机构分析 - In 2024, Jiangxi's deposit and loan balances ranked 16th and 14th in China respectively, in the middle range. There are four local city - commercial banks and two guarantee institutions in the province [5] 3.7 区域债务对比——城投债余额、估值与择券分析 - As of June 9, the balance of urban investment bonds in Jiangxi was 702.9 billion yuan. The balance of provincial - level, Nanchang, Shangrao, and Ganzhou was about 100 billion yuan, and the balance of Jingdezhen, Yichun, and Jiujiang was between 45 - 50 billion yuan [7] - The overall debt pressure in Jiangxi is controllable, but there are differences among cities. It is recommended to focus on municipal platforms in the third - tier regions and strong district - county platforms for 2 - 3 - year bonds; for those with low risk preferences, focus on municipal platforms in the second - tier regions for 3 - 5 - year bonds; the over - 5 - year ultra - long - term bonds are mainly concentrated in provincial - level and Nanchang municipal platforms [7]