光大期货能化商品日报-20250626

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. For crude oil, it will likely have a narrow - range oscillation, and there is potential for a slight upward shift in the price center. For fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, their prices are also expected to fluctuate, with some facing downward pressure due to factors such as supply - demand relationships and geopolitical situations [1][3][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Wednesday, the price center of oil rebounded slightly. The EIA inventory report showed significant declines in US commercial crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the OPEC+ meeting on July 6 are key factors affecting the supply - demand balance and price trends of the oil market [1]. - Fuel Oil: The main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil declined on Wednesday. The import and export volumes of Chinese bonded marine fuel oil in May showed different trends. In June, the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is expected to increase, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market in Asia is supported by summer power generation demand [3]. - Asphalt: The main asphalt contract fell on Wednesday. The July production plan of refineries is expected to increase year - on - year but decrease slightly month - on - month. The current influencing factors include cost - side oil prices and weak demand [3][5]. - Polyester: The prices of TA, EG, and PX showed different trends on Wednesday. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light, and there are plans for production cuts. The operation of Iranian terminals and the passage through the Strait of Hormuz are normal, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production of ethylene glycol plants [5]. - Rubber: The prices of main rubber contracts showed different trends on Wednesday. EU passenger car sales in May increased year - on - year, but the cumulative sales in the first five months decreased. The social inventory of natural rubber in China increased slightly, and the raw material prices declined [6]. - Methanol: The prices of methanol and its downstream products are presented. After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the resumption of production of Iranian plants is expected to increase the arrival volume, and the price of methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. - Polyolefins: The prices and production profits of polypropylene and polyethylene are provided. After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran and the decline in oil prices, the prices of polyolefins are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7]. - Polyvinyl Chloride: The prices of PVC in different regions showed different trends. As the downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, but the narrowing of arbitrage and hedging space is expected to keep the price in an oscillatory state [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on June 25, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The EIA inventory report shows that in the week ending June 20, US commercial crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased significantly, while the strategic petroleum reserve increased. The product supply of US gasoline reached the highest level since December 2021, and the refinery utilization rate reached the highest level since July 2024 [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [12][14][16] - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [30][33][37] - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [46][48][51] - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: It presents the spread charts between different varieties, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc. [63][67][69] - 4.5 Production Profits: The report shows the production profit charts of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [74][75][78] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [80][81][82] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [85]