券商板块月报：券商板块2025年5月回顾及6月前瞻-20250626

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [41]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the brokerage sector experienced a mixed performance in May 2025, with the brokerage index rising by 1.02%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 1.85% [5][6]. - The report anticipates a stable operating environment for the brokerage industry in the second half of 2025, with overall profitability expected to remain steady alongside the capital market [39][41]. - The brokerage sector's average P/B ratio fluctuated between 1.294 and 1.372 times in May 2025, remaining below the historical average of 1.55 times since 2016 [10][36]. Summary by Sections 1. May 2025 Brokerage Sector Review - The brokerage index successfully filled a gap in early May but experienced a decline in the latter half of the month, ultimately underperforming major indices [5][6]. - The average P/B ratio for the brokerage sector was 1.303 times at the end of May, indicating a continued struggle to reach historical valuation levels [10][36]. 2. Key Market Factors Impacting May 2025 Performance - The report identifies several core market factors affecting the monthly performance of listed brokerages, including a decline in average daily trading volume and a decrease in brokerage business sentiment for the third consecutive month [19][21]. - Margin financing balances showed slight recovery, while investment banking activities reached a relative low point for the year, with equity financing dropping significantly [27][36]. 3. June 2025 Performance Outlook for Listed Brokerages - The report forecasts a potential improvement in proprietary trading performance in June, with expectations of a stable recovery in brokerage business sentiment [28][36]. - Overall, the report predicts a certain degree of growth in the monthly operating performance of listed brokerages in June 2025, driven by various market factors [36][39]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading brokerages with valuations significantly below the sector average and strong wealth management capabilities, as these firms are expected to outperform the market [39][41].