中辉期货原油早报-20250626

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude Oil: Oil prices return to fundamental pricing, with a consumption peak season versus increasing supply, leading to a consolidation phase. Consider short - term short positions with call option protection [1][3]. - LPG: Geopolitical tensions ease, causing cost - end decline and putting pressure on LPG. Consider short - term short positions [1][7]. - L: With a large number of device restarts, the market is in a bearish consolidation. Consider short - term short positions on rebounds [1][9]. - PP: The shutdown ratio increases, and downstream purchases are based on rigid demand. Consider short - term short positions on rebounds [1][12]. - PVC: The market sentiment improves, and calcium carbide prices continue to fall. Consider short - term short positions on rebounds, but avoid chasing short positions in the short term [1][15]. - PX: The fundamentals are tight, and cost support remains. Consider low - buying opportunities [1][18]. - PTA: Supply pressure is expected to increase, but the fundamentals are currently tight with an expected easing. Consider low - buying opportunities [1][21]. - Ethylene Glycol (EG): Supply and demand are expected to be loose, with imports being a factor. The market is in an oscillatory adjustment. Short - term wait - and - see is recommended [1][24]. - Glass: Spot market shows partial improvement, and the futures market has a weak rebound. Consider short - term long positions and long - term short positions [2][27]. - Soda Ash: Sentiment recovers, and the market is in a low - level oscillatory consolidation. The long - term trend is bearish [2][30]. - Caustic Soda: Risk appetite improves, and the market rebounds at a low level. Consider holding long positions from the previous period cautiously and watch for short - selling opportunities [2][33]. - Methanol: Geopolitical risks are squeezed out, and MTO demand shows negative feedback. Consider short - selling on rebounds and low - buying opportunities for the 01 contract [35]. - Urea: Export expectations and the approaching agricultural demand peak season lead to a short - term bullish trend. Consider holding long positions from the previous period cautiously and watch for short - selling opportunities [37]. - Asphalt: Cost declines, and the market is weakly oscillatory. Consider short - term short positions [2][42]. 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices were in consolidation. WTI rose 0.85%, Brent rose 0.39%, and SC fell 8.11% [3]. - Basic Logic: After Trump announced the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, oil prices returned to fundamental pricing. Supply is increasing, and demand growth is slightly lower. US crude inventory decreased, while strategic crude reserve increased [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, supply is expected to be in excess, with oil prices fluctuating between $60 - $70 per barrel. In the short - term, the market is weakly oscillatory. Consider short - term short positions with call option protection. SC is expected to be in the range of [490 - 520] [3]. LPG - Market Review: On June 25, the PG main contract closed at 4237 yuan/ton, down 3.55% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China had different changes [5]. - Basic Logic: Geopolitical disturbances are the core driver. After the cease - fire, cost - end prices fell, and the market adjusted. Supply decreased slightly, demand increased, and port inventory decreased [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, the center is expected to move down. In the short - term, the market rebounds but lacks upward momentum. Consider short - term short positions or buying put options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4250 - 4350] [7]. L - Market Review: L prices showed a slight increase, and the main contract's position decreased. Spot prices and import/export profits had different changes [9]. - Basic Logic: With the easing of the Middle East situation, the cost support for polyethylene weakened. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is in the off - season. The shutdown ratio decreased, and the market is expected to decline slightly [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: Consider short - term short positions on rebounds. L is expected to be in the range of [7200 - 7400] [9]. PP - Market Review: PP prices showed a slight increase, and the main contract's position decreased. Spot prices and profit margins had different changes [12]. - Basic Logic: Cost decline dampened market sentiment. Supply decreased due to increased device maintenance, and demand was based on rigid demand. The market is expected to be weakly oscillatory [12]. - Strategy Recommendation: Consider short - term short positions on rebounds. PP is expected to be in the range of [7000 - 7200] [12]. PVC - Market Review: PVC prices showed a slight increase, and the main contract's position decreased. Spot prices and cost data had different changes [15]. - Basic Logic: Geopolitical conflicts affected the market, and the supply - demand fundamentals were weak. Some device maintenance is expected to end, and new devices are planned to be put into production. The market is expected to be weak [15]. - Strategy Recommendation: Consider short - term short positions on rebounds, but avoid chasing short positions in the short term. V is expected to be in the range of [4800 - 5000] [15]. PX - Market Review: On June 20, the PX spot price in East China was 7050 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 7076 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads had different changes [17]. - Basic Logic: PX profits improved, and domestic and overseas device loads were high. Demand from PTA is expected to improve, and inventory is decreasing. The fundamentals are tight in June, and cost support remains [18]. - Strategy Recommendation: Consider low - buying opportunities. PX is expected to be in the range of [6670 - 6800] [19]. PTA - Market Review: On June 20, the PTA spot price in East China was 5280 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4978 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads had different changes [20]. - Basic Logic: Supply pressure is expected to increase due to device restarts and new capacity. Demand from downstream polyester is high, but terminal weaving is weak. Inventory is decreasing, and processing fees are high. The fundamentals are tight but expected to ease [21]. - Strategy Recommendation: Consider low - buying opportunities. TA is expected to be in the range of [4730 - 4850] [22]. EG - Market Review: On June 20, the EG spot price in East China was 4580 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4501 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads had different changes [23]. - Basic Logic: Device loads increased, but arrivals and imports were low. Demand from downstream polyester is high, but terminal weaving is weak. Inventory is decreasing, and the market is expected to be loose [24]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term wait - and - see. EG is expected to be in the range of [4300 - 4360] [25]. Glass - Market Review: Spot prices decreased, and the futures market had a weak rebound. The basis narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [26]. - Basic Logic: Geopolitical risks decreased, and the macro - sentiment recovered. The medium - term demand for glass is still weak, and the short - term supply - demand situation is not good. The market is in a weak recovery [27]. - Strategy Recommendation: Consider short - term long positions and long - term short positions. FG is expected to be in the range of [1010 - 1030], with the 5 - day moving average providing weak support [27]. Soda Ash - Market Review: Heavy soda ash spot prices decreased, and the futures market hit a new low. The main contract's basis narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [29]. - Basic Logic: The supply is increasing, and the demand from float glass and photovoltaic glass is decreasing. Inventory is accumulating, and the market is in an oversupply situation. The long - term trend is bearish [30]. - Strategy Recommendation: The market is in a low - level oscillatory consolidation. Be cautious about the impact of oil and coal prices and tariff policies. SA is expected to be in the range of [1150 - 1180] [29]. Caustic Soda - Market Review: Caustic soda spot prices decreased, and the futures market had a weak rebound at a low level. The basis weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [32]. - Basic Logic: Supply is high, and demand from downstream alumina is weak. Export volume decreased in May. Inventory is decreasing, and the market is expected to be weak. Pay attention to the sustainability of downstream replenishment [33]. - Strategy Recommendation: Consider holding long positions from the previous period cautiously and watch for short - selling opportunities. SH is expected to be in the range of [2270 - 2320] [32]. Methanol - Market Review: On June 20, the methanol spot price in East China was 2664 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2529 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads had different changes [34]. - Basic Logic: Domestic coal - based methanol production is at a high level, and overseas production has decreased. Demand from MTO shows negative feedback, and inventory is decreasing. Consider short - selling on the 09 contract and low - buying on the 01 contract [35]. - Strategy Recommendation: MA is expected to be in the range of [2380 - 2450] [36]. Urea - Market Review: On June 20, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1820 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1730 yuan/ton. The spreads and basis had different changes [37]. - Basic Logic: Supply is high, and demand from agriculture and industry is weak. The agricultural demand peak season is approaching, and fertilizer exports are increasing. Inventory is decreasing, and cost support remains. Consider holding long positions from the previous period cautiously and watch for short - selling opportunities [37]. - Strategy Recommendation: UR is expected to be in the range of [1735 - 1775] [38]. Asphalt - Market Review: On June 25, the BU main contract closed at 3574 yuan/ton, down 0.15% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China had different changes [40]. - Basic Logic: After the cease - fire, oil and asphalt prices returned to fundamental pricing. Supply is increasing, and demand shows a "north - strong, south - weak" pattern. Inventory is accumulating [41]. - Strategy Recommendation: The market is weakly oscillatory in the short - term. Consider short - term short positions. BU is expected to be in the range of [3550 - 3650] [42].