中辉有色观点-20250626

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is in a strong oscillation, with short - term price decline due to reduced risk - aversion sentiment, but long - term strategic allocation is recommended as there are many uncertainties [1]. - Silver is in a range - bound oscillation, affected by the gold price, and attention should be paid to the support at 8700 [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to hold long positions. In the long - term, there is confidence in the upward trend as global copper mines are in short supply [1]. - Zinc is in a rebound. It is advisable to wait and see for now, and in the long - term, take short - selling opportunities on rallies [1]. - Lead is in a short - term rebound due to enterprise maintenance and cost support [1]. - Tin is in a short - term rebound as mine production resumption is slow and consumption is in the off - season [1]. - Aluminum is under pressure as imports are high and the terminal is entering the off - season [1]. - Nickel is slightly stable at a low level, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [1]. - Industrial silicon's rebound is under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rallies as the fundamental surplus remains [1]. - Lithium carbonate's rebound is under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies as the supply is in surplus [1]. Summary According to Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Condition: Gold prices plummeted and then stopped falling due to short - term reversals in geopolitical situations and approaching tariff deadlines. Silver lacks new driving forces [2]. - Underlying Logic: There are only two weeks left until Trump's tariff deadline. The US has only reached a trade agreement with the UK, and many other countries have not achieved substantial progress in trade negotiations with the US. Trump criticized the Fed chairman, and the Middle East situation is under control. The long - term bullish logic of gold remains unchanged as the world reduces its reliance on the US dollar and fiscal and monetary policies are both loose [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Gold is in an adjustment phase. Pay attention to the support around 760 and consider long - term investment. Silver is in a range - bound oscillation, and pay attention to the support at 8550 [4]. Copper - Market Condition: Shanghai copper oscillated at a high level overnight, and its center of gravity moved up. The prices of domestic and foreign copper futures and spot all increased slightly, with an increase in trading volume and changes in inventory [6]. - Underlying Logic: Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and the copper concentrate processing TC has dropped. The domestic electrolytic copper production has increased, and it is expected to decline slightly in June. COMEX copper is draining global copper inventories, and the LME spot premium has decreased. The terminal green copper demand is strong, offsetting the weakness in traditional demand [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold the previous long positions of copper. In the long - term, there is confidence in the upward trend of copper. Short - term attention should be paid to the range of Shanghai copper [78000, 79500] and London copper [9650, 9800] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - Market Condition: Zinc held above the integer - level mark, and the prices of domestic and foreign zinc futures and spot all increased slightly. Trading volume decreased, and inventory decreased [8]. - Underlying Logic: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. The domestic zinc ore processing fee has been raised. The domestic refined zinc production decreased in May and is expected to increase in June. Overseas and domestic zinc inventories are de - stocking against the season, and the downstream galvanizing enterprise's operating rate is affected by weak steel demand [8]. - Strategy Recommendation: Wait and see for now due to positive macro and sector sentiment and inventory de - stocking. In the long - term, short on rallies as supply increases and demand is weak. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai zinc [21800, 22500] and London zinc [2650, 2750] dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - Market Condition: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina prices rebounded slightly [10]. - Underlying Logic: For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - sentiment has recovered, but the terminal is in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating. For alumina, overseas bauxite imports remain high, the domestic operating capacity has increased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has slightly increased [11]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rallies for Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to inventory changes, and the main operating range is [20000 - 20600]. Alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - Market Condition: Nickel prices were slightly stable, and stainless steel prices rebounded from a low level [12]. - Underlying Logic: The overseas macro - environment has improved. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has increased, and the price of Indonesian nickel ore has decreased. The domestic refined nickel production has slightly decreased, but the inventory is sufficient, and the supply pressure is significant. The stainless steel terminal is in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating, with an oversupply situation [13]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to inventory changes, and the main operating range of nickel is [117000 - 121000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Condition: The main contract LC2509 slightly increased its positions and was strong throughout the day [14]. - Underlying Logic: Market rumors led to short - covering. Fundamentally, the supply is in surplus, and the supply - demand contradiction is intensifying. Production has increased, and the terminal is in the off - season, with expected inventory accumulation. Although the number of warehouse receipts has decreased, the total inventory has reached a new high [15]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rallies in the range of [60500 - 61600] [15].