关税豁免临近到期扰动全球贸易、关税影响高频跟踪

Trade Trends - In June, U.S. imports showed a low-to-high trend, with container arrivals indicating imports below the same period last year[3] - Imports from China have seen a mild recovery but remain significantly lower than the 2023-24 period, while imports from Vietnam and other countries have accelerated[3] - The forecast for container arrivals at the Port of Los Angeles indicates a significant rebound in the last two weeks of June, likely due to preemptive imports before the tariff suspension ends on July 9[3] Consumer Behavior - U.S. consumer spending on goods and services has continued to slow, with hotel occupancy rates significantly below seasonal averages since mid-June[4] - Retail sales have been affected by a slowdown in discretionary spending, with the Redbook weekly retail index showing a decline in both year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates[4] Corporate Investment - Corporate capital expenditure intentions have weakened, with some regional Federal Reserve surveys indicating a decline in investment sentiment[4] - Manufacturing output has shown marginal recovery, but overall inventory levels are declining, with soft data indicating a downward trend[4] Labor Market - The labor market has cooled, with a slight increase in layoffs and a rise in initial and continuing unemployment claims since late May[4] - Job openings have continued to decline, indicating a slowdown in hiring intentions among companies[4] Inflation and Financial Conditions - Market inflation expectations remain stable, with 5-year and 10-year inflation expectations at approximately 2.5% and 2.3%, respectively[5] - Supermarket prices have continued to rise, reflecting ongoing tariff impacts, with imported goods prices increasing by about 1% and domestic goods by 0.3% since April[5] - Financial conditions have loosened further, as indicated by Bloomberg's financial conditions index and corporate bond spreads[5]