短期生机现，长期路漫漫

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the bottle chip industry is "Oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bottle chip industry maintains a pattern of loose supply and demand, with absolute prices dominated by the cost side and difficult to have an independent market. Domestic demand growth falls short of expectations this year, and although exports are strong, they are insufficient to absorb the supply increment, leading to a faster accumulation of social inventory. However, the active adjustment by factories increases, and the supply side may continue to show periodic fluctuation characteristics, which will improve the industry's supply - demand situation periodically. The industry's profit is likely to remain sluggish, and the processing fee is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, following the cost side. There are opportunities for operation in the range of 300 - 500 yuan/ton for the disk processing fee [3][74][75] Summary According to the Directory 1. 2025 H1 Bottle Chip Market Review - In H1 2025, bottle chip prices closely followed polyester raw materials, with significantly increased price volatility and a downward - shifted processing fee center. The market can be divided into three stages: In the first stage, weak oil prices and weak demand led to a downward trend in the polyester industry chain. Bottle chip processing fees first increased and then decreased. In the second stage, the adjustment of the US reciprocal tariff policy caused pulse - like fluctuations in the polyester industry chain prices. Bottle chip processing fees were passively expanded and then quickly weakened. In the third stage, geopolitical risks and domestic PX device load reduction pushed up polyester industry chain prices. The planned 20% production cut in July by bottle chip manufacturers was temporarily restricted by the strong raw materials [13][14] 2. Supply: Periodic Characteristics under Excess Capacity 2.1 Expansion Cycle Nearing Completion, Capacity Growth Rate Slowing - After high - speed capacity growth in 2023 - 2024, the capacity expansion speed of bottle chips slowed down in 2025. In H1, 125 tons/year of new capacity was added. It is expected that the new capacity in H2 will be about 67 tons/year, and the annual new capacity may reach 192 tons/year. The capacity growth rate in 2025 may drop to around 9.4% [21] 2.2 Significantly Increased Supply Elasticity - From January to May 2025, the total bottle chip production was 6.945 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.6%. In Q1, the industry's operating rate was at a historically low level, and production increased moderately. After entering 2025, due to low processing fees and inventory pressure, there were more device shutdowns. In Q2, as the peak demand season approached, the operating rate quickly rose to over 90%. The supply elasticity of bottle chips increased significantly this year, with greater fluctuations in the operating rate [25][27] 2.3 From Price War to Joint Production Cut - Since May, with the increase in bottle chip production, social and factory inventory pressures have increased. In mid - June, the bottle chip industry reached a 20% production cut decision. If the production cut is implemented, it will temporarily relieve the industry's supply pressure in Q3, but there may be a cycle between joint production cuts and price wars in the future [35] 3. Domestic Demand: Growth Falls Short of Expectations, Maintaining Low - speed Growth - In H1, the soft drink industry's demand grew moderately with a slowdown in growth rate. From January to May, soft drink production increased by 3.0% year - on - year, and beverage retail sales increased by 0.2%. The high - base effect, less policy stimulus, and lightweight packaging initiatives in the beverage industry affected bottle chip demand. In the edible oil and sheet material fields, the growth rate also slowed down. It is expected that the annual domestic demand growth rate of bottle chips will fall short of expectations and may return to the 3% - 5% low - growth range [38][41][54] 4. Exports: Strong Momentum, with a Slight Slowdown in Growth Rate Expected in H2 - In H1 2025, bottle chip exports maintained a high - speed growth, with a 21.5% year - on - year increase from January to May. Although there are trade frictions, their impact on the overall export pattern is limited. It is expected that the annual export volume of bottle chips will exceed 6.5 million tons, but the growth rate may slightly decline in H2 due to the high - base effect, with the annual growth rate likely to be in the 12% - 15% range [56][65] 5. Investment Suggestions - Fundamentally, the bottle chip industry maintains a loose supply - demand pattern. Strategically, industry profits are likely to remain sluggish, and the processing fee will continue to oscillate at a low level. There are opportunities for operation in the 300 - 500 yuan/ton range of the disk processing fee [74][75]