有色商品日报(2025 年 6 月 26 日)-20250626
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-06-26 06:48
- Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Despite concerns about demand uncertainty due to macro and geopolitical factors, the strong reality of copper is increasingly strengthening. There is a potential pattern of buying on dips. In the short - term, it is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the absence of effective resonance between macro and micro factors, with a focus on the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina shows a tendency of fluctuating upward. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a game between weakening marginal demand and low ingot - casting volume and low - warehouse - receipt squeezing effects. For waste aluminum, there is still cost support, and continuous attention should be paid to the opportunity of rolling to do long on the AD - AL spread [1][2]. - Nickel: In the short - term, the firm raw material prices provide support, but the market lacks confidence. Mid - term demand may still restrict the fundamentals to be bearish. Attention should be paid to the premium of nickel ore and the inventory of primary nickel, as well as the changes in overseas policies [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Overnight, LME copper rose 0.65% to $9,727/ton, and SHFE copper rose 0.36% to 78,720 yuan/ton. The import of refined copper and scrap copper in China decreased, and the export window opened. The LME inventory dropped to below 100,000 tons, and the market was worried about extreme market conditions [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina fluctuated strongly, with AO2509 closing at 2,937 yuan/ton, up 1.07%. The spot price of alumina declined. The electrolytic aluminum market faced a game between demand and supply - side factors [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel rose 1.14% to $15,075/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 1.19% to 119,490 yuan/ton. The stainless - steel market was in an oversupply state, and the supply and demand of nickel sulfate were both weak [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - water copper increased, and the price of waste copper also rose. The LME inventory decreased by 1,200 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 955 tons [1][3]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead increased by 180 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate price rose, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,125 tons [3]. - Aluminum: The price of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai changed slightly. The LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 1,620 tons [4]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased. The LME inventory increased by 432 tons, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipt decreased by 222 tons [2][4]. - Zinc: The main settlement price rose slightly. The LME inventory decreased by 575 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.26 tons [5]. - Tin: The main settlement price decreased by 0.4%. The LME inventory decreased by 25 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 142 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: The document shows the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: It presents the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][22][23]. - LME Inventory: The LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are demonstrated [24][26][28]. - SHFE Inventory: The SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are shown [31][33][35]. - Social Inventory: It includes the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - Smelting Profit: The document shows the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 3.4有色金属团队介绍 - 展大鹏: A master of science, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience [50]. - 王珩: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [50]. - 朱希: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [51].