光大期货碳酸锂日报（2025年6月26日）-20250626

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 25, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.96% to 60,880 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 300 yuan/ton to 60,200 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 300 yuan/ton to 58,600 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 300 yuan/ton to 58,270 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 5 tons to 22,370 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output of lithium carbonate increased month - on - month, with a more than 9% increase in June. On the demand side, the weekly inventory turnover days increased, especially for lithium iron phosphate. In June, the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major cathode materials decreased by 10% month - on - month. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory increased by 1,352 tons to 134,901 tons. Among them, the downstream inventory decreased by 320 tons to 40,366 tons, the intermediate link inventory increased by 700 tons to 35,910 tons, and the upstream inventory increased by 972 tons to 58,625 tons. The combined inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium ore reached about 3.5 months [3]. - The current price level is basically at a phased bottom. The lithium ore price of 600 - 610 US dollars provides short - term support, but there is no inflection point in the fundamentals yet, and market sentiment remains bearish. In the short term, it is still necessary to be vigilant about the position of the 07 contract [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 60,880 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 61,180 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 619 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 685 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,210 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of lithiophilite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 4,875 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; the price of lithiophilite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 5,725 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonate: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 60,200 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 58,600 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan [5]. - Lithium hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 58,270 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 63,420 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 52,370 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan and South Korea) was 8.13 US dollars/kg, down 0.02 US dollars [5]. - Lithium hexafluorophosphate: The price was 51,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - Price differences: The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 1,930 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 3.92 yuan/ton, up 166 yuan [5]. - Precursor & cathode materials: The prices of some products such as ternary precursor 523, ternary material 523, and lithium iron phosphate changed slightly, with the price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) up 1,500 yuan/ton to 218,350 yuan/ton [5]. - Cells & batteries: The prices of some products such as 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, and cobalt acid lithium cells changed slightly [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and lithiophilite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts show the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [9][11][13]. - Price differences: Charts show the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) - domestic, and basis from 2024 to 2025 [16][18][19]. - Precursor & cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors and ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [21][24][27]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts show the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from October 31, 2024, to June 19, 2025 [35][37]. - Production cost: A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole piece black powder, purchased lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, purchased lithium mica concentrate, and purchased lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [39][40].