行业比较周报：券商异动后，军工、科技补涨的胜率、赔率-20250626

Group 1 - The report indicates that after a broker's movement and the Shanghai Composite Index breakout, the technology sector shows a high win rate of 100% and an average return of approximately 9% over 15 trading days, making it more favorable compared to brokers [1][25]. - The current trading strategy focuses on technology sector rebounds rather than brokers, suggesting a need to assess whether the current financial market conditions are comparable to those in November 2014, with significant differences in relative returns between the financial and technology sectors since 2023 [1][25]. - The military industry, as another elastic sector, also demonstrates a good rebound win rate under similar historical conditions [1][26]. Group 2 - The report defines broker movement and Shanghai Composite Index breakout by three criteria: a broker index daily increase of over 5%, more than 10 stocks in the broker sector hitting the daily limit, and the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the past quarter [10][19]. - A notable failure in technology sector rebounds occurred on November 24, 2014, when the TMT technology style had been strong for over two years, and the blue-chip financial sector was undervalued, leading to a significant rebound driven by unexpected interest rate cuts [2][15]. - The military sector also shows promising rebound rates in similar historical scenarios, indicating its potential as an investment opportunity [18][26].