Group 1: Market Overview - A-share market showed a large consolidation platform in the first half of the year, with a deep V-shaped trend triggered by the tariff war. After the Middle East situation eased on June 24, the stock index rose rapidly [8]. - Due to the impact of DeepSeek and the US imposing reciprocal tariffs, international capital fled from US stocks on a large scale, with technology stocks being the hardest hit [10]. - After the rebound of US stocks in April, the main buyers were retail investors, while institutions withdrew one after another, and the short positions of hedge funds reached a record high [13]. Group 2: Market Outlook - A-shares are expected to transform into a capital-driven upward trend. After the Middle East situation eased, the risk appetite of A-shares quickly recovered, and the main indexes of the two markets rose rapidly. With the one-year deposit rate falling below 1%, the large-scale savings of the household sector are accelerating to flow into the stock market, preferring high-dividend sectors, which has driven the bank ETF to continuously reach new highs. The balance of margin trading has rebounded, and the financing balance has remained above 1.8 trillion yuan for 11 consecutive trading days (from June 9 to June 23). Global investors are increasingly focusing on China's innovation and leading position, and many foreign giants have suddenly collectively turned bullish on Chinese assets. Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight recommendation for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, and Bank of America believes that global capital allocation is gradually shifting from the US to the Eurasian market. Since October 2024, A-shares have been consolidating on a large platform for more than 8 months and are facing an upward breakthrough [18]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, A-shares have been consolidating on a large platform for more than 8 months and are facing an upward breakthrough. They are expected to transform into a capital-driven upward trend and evolve from a volatile recovery market to a trending upward market [19]. - For stock index option trading, after breaking through the large consolidation platform, investors can buy out-of-the-money long-dated call options on stock index options [19]. Group 4: Interest Rate and Market Impact - The one-year deposit rate was cut by 15 basis points to 0.95%, which will promote the continuous transfer of household savings and insurance funds to the stock market. The 1-year deposit rate breaking below 1% accelerates the transfer of household savings and insurance funds to the stock market, and the decline in deposit rates boosts the value style of the stock market [23][26]. - The issuance of free cash flow ETFs helps the value style. Free cash flow is an indicator of a company's moat in operation and development, and it can relatively truly reflect the company's financial health and profitability in terms of cash. Domestic free cash flow index ETFs were first launched by Huaxia Fund and Guotai Fund in January 2025, tracking the China Securities Free Cash Flow Index and the FTSE China A-share Free Cash Flow Focus Index respectively. The free cash flow strategy has certain growth potential on the basis of value investment, while the dividend strategy is more suitable for investors who prefer low valuations and stable dividends [29]. Group 5: Global Capital Allocation - Global large funds are collectively "de-Americanizing," reducing their allocation of US stocks, US bonds, and the US dollar, and increasing their allocation of European and Asian stocks, gold, and non-US currencies. Institutions generally hold different views on US stocks, but the overall allocation has been reduced to a neutral level, making it the least favored market globally. "Buying Asia and Europe" has become a consensus among global large funds. European and Japanese stock markets have been upgraded, and emerging market stock markets remain overweight [30]. - Institutions generally reduce their holdings of US and Japanese bonds and turn to increasing their positions in UK, German, Italian bonds, and local bonds in emerging markets. In the foreign exchange market, the selling of the US is more obvious, and the US dollar continues to be underweighted, while the euro and the yen continue to be overweighted [31][32]. Group 6: Foreign Investment Views - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight recommendation for Chinese assets, expecting the target point of the CSI 300 to be 4,600 and the target point of the MSCI China to be 84, implying an upside potential of about 10%. Goldman Sachs has recently upgraded the ratings of the banking and real estate sectors, mainly benefiting from domestic policy support, and continues to overweight consumer-related sectors, including medical devices, consumer services, media, and e-commerce retail [33]. - Overseas "smart money" is bullish on Chinese assets with real money. From the frequent due diligence of quantitative private equity funds by foreign investors to the aggressive layout of sovereign funds, overseas "smart money" has turned its attention to the Chinese market. Many international investment banks such as Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank have raised their growth forecasts for the Chinese economy. In the view of many foreign institutions, the continuous efforts of China's monetary and fiscal policies, the resilience of the service industry, and the technological breakthroughs driving the revaluation of assets will jointly support the recovery of the Chinese economy and the warming of the capital market [36]. Group 7: China's Economic Data - In May, China's export amount reached $316.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.8%, exceeding expectations. In April, China's export volume increased by 13.0% year-on-year and 8.5% month-on-month. The export structure continued to upgrade, with the export amount of mechanical and electrical products reaching $181.9 billion in May, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. The export volume of general equipment and special equipment continued to grow rapidly, indicating the continuous upgrading of the export structure [38][41][44]. - In May, China's export to ASEAN reached $58.3 billion, with a surplus of $27.1 billion, reaching a record high. China's export to the EU reached $49.5 billion in May, hitting a new high in nearly three years, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.0% [50][53]. - In May, Vietnam's export amount reached $39.5 billion, a record high, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.7%, indicating an acceleration of trade transfer [56]. - In May, China's manufacturing fixed asset investment reached 2.93 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.8%. China continues to make large-scale investments in emerging and future industries. Infrastructure investment reached 2.26 trillion yuan in May, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.3%, maintaining a medium-to-high growth rate [59][62]. - The monthly values of new housing starts and commercial housing sales areas have stabilized. In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.67 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.5%, indicating a continuous improvement in consumption. The monthly volume of express delivery services by large-scale enterprises in China reached 17.32 billion pieces in May, the second-highest in history, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.2%. The output of industrial robots reached 69,000 units in May, at a high level, with a year-on-year growth rate of 34.1%. The output of integrated circuits reached 42.4 billion pieces in May, the second-highest in history, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19.6%, indicating an acceleration of domestic chip substitution. China's passenger car exports reached 591,000 units in May, including 332,000 electric vehicles, both reaching new highs [65][68][71]. Group 8: US Economic Data - In May, the US manufacturing PMI and service industry business activity index showed certain trends. The prices of the US manufacturing and service industries continued to rise rapidly. The US retail and food sales reached $715.4 billion, at a high level, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.3%, indicating strong consumer demand [83][85][88]. - In April, the US consumer goods import amount reached $69.8 billion, returning to normal, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2%. The US capital goods import amount reached $90.5 billion in April, second only to March, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.2%, indicating an acceleration of the reshoring of the US manufacturing industry and the "re-industrialization" of the US. The US service export reached $98.8 billion in April, hitting a new high this year, indicating the strength of the US service industry [91][94][97]. - In May, the US core CPI increased by 2.8% year-on-year, the same as the previous value, and increased by 0.2% month-on-month. The market expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in September. In April, the number of job openings in the US reached 7.39 million, and the number of hires reached a new high in a year, indicating a tightening labor market. The US wholesalers' inventory increased by 2.3% year-on-year in April, and the manufacturers' inventory increased by 0.9% year-on-year, indicating an active inventory replenishment state [100][103][106]. Group 9: Eurozone and Indian Economic Data - In May, the manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone and Germany showed certain trends. India's manufacturing and service industry PMIs also showed certain trends [113][116]. Group 10: Strategy Recommendations - After the Middle East situation eases, the risk appetite of A-shares quickly recovers, and the main indexes of the two markets rise rapidly. The brokerage ETF, known as the "bull market flag bearer," closed with a long positive line on June 25. Driven by the continuous inflow of funds, A-shares are expected to shift from a volatile recovery market to a trending upward market, and investors are bullish on the four major stock index futures contracts [120][122][125]. - Affected by quantitative capital hedging, the 2509 contracts of the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indexes still have relatively deep discounts. With limited downside risks, investors can earn the discount income. After the market breaks through the large platform upwards, investors are bullish on the out-of-the-money long-dated call options on stock index options [128][131].
格林大华期货股指半年报：全球金融资产再配置利多A股
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-06-26 07:47