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轻工制造、纺织服饰2025年半年度投资策略报告:聚焦内需视角下,关注以旧换新与新消费投资机会-20250626
BOHAI SECURITIES·2025-06-26 08:06

Group 1: Market and Performance Review - The light industry and textile apparel sectors have outperformed the CSI 300 index, with textile apparel rising by 2.05% and light industry by 2.43% as of June 24, 2025 [21][22] - In Q1 2025, the light industry saw a revenue decline of 0.78% year-on-year, while the textile apparel sector experienced a 13.33% decline in revenue [25][29] - The light industry’s net profit decreased by 18.85% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while the textile apparel sector's net profit fell by 5.56% [25][29] Group 2: Home and Electric Two-Wheeler Industries - The home and electric two-wheeler sectors are expected to benefit from the deepening of the old-for-new policy, which is anticipated to improve demand and sales [37][44] - In the first five months of 2025, the retail sales of furniture increased by 21.40% year-on-year, significantly boosted by the old-for-new policy [43][44] - The electric two-wheeler industry faced challenges, with a projected 10.55% decline in sales for 2024, but the old-for-new policy is expected to support sales recovery [59][65] Group 3: New Consumption Trends - The "谷子" economy, driven by Z generation consumers who value emotional and self-satisfying purchases, is projected to reach a market size of 1,689 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 40.63% year-on-year [7][79] - The pet food market is expected to grow to 3,002 billion yuan by 2024, with a significant increase in consumer preference for domestic brands [97][105] - The sanitary products market is also evolving, with non-leading domestic brands showing potential for growth due to the rise of e-commerce and consumer preferences for single products [7][105]