要素交织延续，?价震荡偏弱

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals industry is "oscillating weakly" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short - term, multiple factors for gold are intertwined, leading to an oscillating trend. In the medium - to long - term, the view in the mid - year report "The Stronger Get Stronger, the Bull Market of Precious Metals Continues" is maintained [1][3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content Key Information - On June 25, NATO leaders at the summit in The Hague passed a statement supporting an increase in the defense spending target to 5% of GDP by 2035 [2] - US President Trump stated during the NATO summit in The Hague that although the actual damage to Iranian nuclear facilities from the US - Israel joint air strikes was unclear, the cease - fire agreement marked a "victory for everyone" [2] - Fed Chairman Powell told members of Congress on Tuesday that tariff hikes this summer might start to push up inflation, which would be a crucial period for the Fed to consider interest rate cuts [2] Price Logic - The recent gold price is affected by multiple factors. The easing of the Middle East tension weakens gold's safe - haven appeal, while the weakening dollar and Fed's interest rate cut expectations support the price. Market sentiment remains cautious due to the uncertainty of the Israel - Iran cease - fire agreement [3] - Investors are waiting for the release of key US macroeconomic data (PCE) this week to find new trading directions. Powell's hawkish remarks briefly boosted the dollar and suppressed gold [3] - There are three contradictions for gold: the Fed's prudent monetary policy attitude, the better - than - expected US economic data earlier this week echoing the Fed's statement of a robust economy, and the recurring geopolitical risks [3] Mid - year Report View - The new support range for COMEX gold is $3100 - 3300, and the support range for COMEX silver is $32 - 33. In terms of trading drivers, focus on the Fed's first interest rate cut this year, the credit evolution under the promotion of fiscal bills, and the possibility of repeated trade frictions. The upper limit for gold price this year is expected to be $3900 - 4000, and for silver, it is $39 - 40 [6] Outlook - The weekly range for COMEX gold is [3200, 3450], and for COMEX silver, it is [32, 35] [7]