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固收周报：地缘政治冲突对债市影响-20250626
Yong Xing Zheng Quan·2025-06-26 08:13
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Interest rate bonds: Treasury bond yields declined, and the term spread widened. From June 13 to June 20, 2025, the central bank conducted a total of 1,162.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 1,175.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 12.4 billion yuan. Most inter - bank funding prices declined. The primary market for interest - rate bonds issued 854.533 billion yuan, with a net financing of 322.984 billion yuan. Treasury bond yields for 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year terms decreased, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread widened from 24.38BP to 28.44BP [1]. - Credit bonds: Credit bond yields declined. From June 16 to June 22, 2025, the primary market for credit bonds issued 1,292 bonds, with a total issuance scale of 1,708.452 billion yuan, a net financing of 202.349 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities had the largest proportion of issuance by number, and AAA - rated bonds had the largest issuance scale. Credit bond issuance was mainly in the 3 - 5 - year term. The yields of urban investment bonds and medium - and short - term notes declined [2]. - Observation of major asset classes: From June 13 to June 20, 2025, the three major US stock indexes were divided. European stock indexes generally declined, while most Asian - Pacific stock indexes rose. US Treasury yields declined overall. The US dollar index rose, and non - US currencies weakened. Crude oil prices increased, and gold prices decreased [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Bonds 3.1.1 Liquidity Observation - The central bank had a net withdrawal of liquidity, and most funding prices declined. From June 13 to June 20, 2025, the central bank's net withdrawal was 12.4 billion yuan. DR001 and DR007 decreased, while exchange - traded funding prices were divided [15]. 3.1.2 Primary Market Issuance - Net financing increased, and local government bond issuance increased. From June 16 to June 22, 2025, the primary market for interest - rate bonds had a net financing of 322.984 billion yuan. Local government bond issuance increased compared to the previous period [27]. 3.1.3 Secondary Market Trading - Treasury bond yields declined, and the term spread widened. From June 13 to June 20, 2025, yields of treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds declined overall. The 10Y - 1Y term spread of treasury bonds widened, while that of China Development Bank bonds narrowed [34][36]. 3.2 Credit Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market Issuance - Issuance volume increased month - on - month. From June 16 to June 22, 2025, the primary market for credit bonds issued 1,292 bonds, with a total issuance scale of 1,708.452 billion yuan, a net financing of 202.349 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities had the largest proportion of issuance by number, and AAA - rated bonds had the largest issuance scale. Credit bond issuance was mainly in the 3 - 5 - year term, and the financial industry had the largest number of issuances [50][52]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trading - Credit bond yields declined overall. From June 13 to June 20, 2025, the yields of urban investment bonds and medium - and short - term notes declined, with the largest decline in the 7 - year term for AA + - rated urban investment bonds and AAA, AA +, AA - rated medium - and short - term notes [59]. 3.2.3 One - Week Credit Default Event Review - No corporate credit bond defaults occurred from June 16 to June 22, 2025 [63]. 3.3 Observation of Major Asset Classes 3.3.1 Differentiation of European and American Stock Indexes - The three major US stock indexes were divided, European stock indexes declined, and most Asian - Pacific stock indexes rose. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.02%, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.15%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.21%. European indexes such as the German DAX, French CAC40, and UK FTSE 100 declined. Asian - Pacific indexes like the Nikkei 225, South Korean Composite Index, and Russian Index rose, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell [65]. 3.3.2 Decline in US Treasury Yields - US Treasury yields declined overall. From June 13 to June 20, 2025, yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury bonds declined, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread changed by - 1.00BP to 31.00BP [68]. 3.3.3 Strengthening of the US Dollar Index and Weakening of Non - US Currencies - The US dollar index rose 0.63%, and non - US currencies weakened. From June 13 to June 20, 2025, the British pound, euro, and Japanese yen against the US dollar showed different trends [71]. 3.3.4 Increase in Crude Oil and Decrease in Gold Prices - From June 13 to June 20, 2025, COMEX gold futures and London spot gold prices declined, while Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased [75]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - The impact of geopolitical conflicts on the bond market shows characteristics of "short - term risk - aversion sentiment dominance, medium - term fundamental pricing, and long - term structural reshaping." Investors are advised to dynamically assess the intensity of geopolitical conflicts, policy responses, and market expectation changes, and flexibly adjust portfolio duration and credit exposure. If the Middle East situation escalates, the bond market is expected to strengthen in a volatile manner [4][78].