7月债市调研问卷点评：一致预期或已转向

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Standing at the end of June and looking forward to July, investors' consensus on the bond market may have shifted to going long on long - term and ultra - long - term bonds. The increase in the proportion of bullish sentiment indicates a higher possibility of a stronger bond market. The capital market remains the core concern of investors, and their preference for medium - and low - grade and high - grade urban investment bonds has marginally weakened [1]. - Four mainstream expectations for the July bond market from investors are summarized based on the survey: the expected range of long - term Treasury yields is concentrated, showing a "ceiling and floor" state; the bullish sentiment in the bond market is rising, corresponding to the current relatively strong market; external factors may have limited impact on the macro - economy, and investors' overall expectation of the second - quarter economy has improved, with limited possibility of short - term monetary policy easing, while monetary policy and the capital market remain the core concerns; due to the front - running market in June, investors' consensus may have shifted to going long on long - term and ultra - long - term bonds, and the proportion of those bullish on ultra - long and long - term interest - rate bonds has increased significantly compared to the June survey [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Questionnaire Background - A bond market questionnaire "How to view the July bond market?" was released on June 24, 2025, targeting the main concerns of the June 2025 bond market. By 17:00 on June 25, 245 valid questionnaires were received, covering various institutional and individual investors [8]. 3.2 Expectations for Treasury Yields - 10 - year Treasury Yields: 47% of investors think the lower limit of the 10 - year Treasury yield will fall within 1.55% - 1.60%, and 27% think it will fall within 1.50% - 1.55%. 68% believe the upper limit will not exceed 1.70%. The probability of the 10 - year Treasury rate breaking below 1.6% is increasing [10]. - 30 - year Treasury Yields: Over 64% of investors think the lower limit of the 30 - year Treasury yield will fall within 1.80% - 1.90%, and about 45% think the upper limit will fall within 1.75% - 1.80%. Investors' expectation of continuous oscillation of the 30 - year Treasury yield has been strengthened [12]. 3.3 Economic Outlook - Regarding the second - quarter economic trend, 12% of investors are optimistic, 23% think it will be "year - on - year recovery, month - on - month in line with seasonality", 35% think it will be "year - on - year recovery, month - on - month weaker than seasonality", and 30% are relatively pessimistic. Overall, investors' expectation of the second - quarter economy has improved, and the proportion of pessimistic expectations has decreased from 39% to 30% [13][16]. 3.4 Monetary Policy Expectations - 降准: 20% of investors think there will be no more reserve requirement ratio cuts this year, 50% think the next cut may be in the third quarter, and 25% think it will be postponed to the fourth quarter. - 降息: 17% of investors think there will be no more interest rate cuts this year, nearly 50% think the next cut may be in the third quarter, and 33% think it will be postponed to the fourth quarter. The game around monetary policy may continue [17]. 3.5 Impact of Geopolitical Events - 67% of investors think the Israel - Iran conflict will have limited impact on the domestic bond market. Those who think it may have an impact mostly believe it may trigger a global risk - aversion sentiment, pushing funds into the gold and Treasury markets and lowering bond yields [18]. 3.6 Market Trend and Operation - Market Trend: 70% of investors think the bond market will strengthen in July, with 33% expecting a bull - steepening yield curve and 37% expecting a bull - flattening yield curve. Due to the front - running market in June, investors' consensus has shifted to going long on long - term and ultra - long - term bonds, and institutional investors' clustering may boost the market [23]. - Operation: 55% of investors think they should keep their positions stable, 14% think they should hold cash and wait for a callback to add positions, 11% think they can start adding positions, 16% think they should take profits and reduce positions, and about 4% think they should reduce duration to control risks [24]. 3.7 Preferred Bond Types - Ultra - long and long - term interest - rate bonds are the most favored by investors, while the preference for medium - and low - grade urban investment bonds has declined [26]. 3.8 Bond Pricing Logic - Monetary policy and the capital market are still the core concerns of bond investors. Investors' attention to institutional behavior games has increased, while their attention to the performance of the equity market has decreased marginally [29].