炉料表现好于成材

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6]. - The short - term outlooks for specific varieties are as follows: steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate; scrap steel prices are expected to oscillate; coke prices are expected to oscillate; coking coal prices are expected to oscillate; glass prices are expected to oscillate in the short term; soda ash prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and decline in the long - term; ferrosilicon manganese prices are expected to oscillate; and ferrosilicon prices are expected to oscillate [8][9][18]. Report's Core View - The black building materials sector is in a vacuum period with limited trading drivers. The overall market is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the accumulation of steel inventory pressure [1][2]. - The performance of furnace materials is better than that of finished products. Double - coking continued a small - scale rebound, iron ore oscillated around 700, and steel was relatively weak [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines are in the end - of - fiscal - year and end - of - quarter rush, with a seasonal increase in shipping volume expected before early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. The demand side shows that the profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production are rising, and it is expected to remain high in the short term. This week, arrivals increased seasonally, and port inventories increased slightly. There is an expectation of a small - scale increase in ore inventory in the short term, but the amplitude is expected to be limited, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Attention should be paid to the profitability and maintenance plans of steel enterprises on the demand side [2]. Carbon Element - Some coal mines that were shut down due to environmental protection and safety inspections are resuming production, and coking coal production is expected to recover from a low level. In terms of imports, the port inventory is high, downstream procurement willingness is low, and the customs clearance volume remains low. On the demand side, coke production has declined from a high level, and there is an expectation of a further decline in coke enterprise operations under the pressure of losses. In terms of inventory, the rigid demand for coking coal has declined, the total amount of downstream raw material replenishment demand is limited, the upstream inventory of coking coal is still at a high level in recent years, and the inventory structure problem has not improved significantly. Overall, the supply - side tightening state is difficult to sustain, downstream rigid demand in the off - season tends to decline, there is still pressure on mine - end de - stocking, and coking coal prices lack a driving force for a trend - like increase [3]. Alloys - Manganese ore has continuous disturbances. South African shipments in July may be affected by local railway derailments, and there may be a reduction in shipments from individual mines of South African manganese ore to China in July. The market price of manganese ore has gradually stabilized and is showing an upward trend. Ferrosilicon has limited internal contradictions, manufacturers have a strong willingness to hold prices, but some manufacturers have an expectation of increasing production, and the supply - demand gap is expected to be filled. Attention should be paid to steel procurement and production in the future [3][6]. Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass is declining, the deep - processing demand continues to weaken, and the upstream inventory is accumulating. There is still pressure in the off - season, but the production and sales in Shahe have improved slightly. On the supply side, there is still pressure, with some production lines starting to produce glass and some undergoing cold repairs. The actual demand is under pressure in the off - season, the futures price is higher than the Hubei spot price, and there are many emotional disturbances. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. Soda Ash - The supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed, maintenance is gradually resuming. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long term [6]. Specific Varieties Steel - The domestic policy is in a vacuum period, overseas wars may still be repeated, and the macro - sentiment is weak. This week, the overall supply and demand of steel have strengthened month - on - month, but the inventory is still decreasing. The fundamentals have strengthened month - on - month, but the expectations are still pessimistic, and the fundamental driving force is weak. It is expected that steel prices will oscillate in the short term [8]. Iron Ore - Overseas mines are in the end - of - fiscal - year and end - of - quarter rush, with a seasonal increase in shipping volume expected before early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. The demand side shows that the molten iron production of small - sample steel enterprises is increasing, and it is expected that the molten iron production can remain high in the short term. This week, arrivals increased seasonally, and port inventories increased slightly. There is an expectation of a small - scale increase in ore inventory in the short term, but the amplitude is expected to be limited, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is expected that iron ore prices will oscillate [8][9]. Scrap Steel - As the building materials off - season deepens, the apparent demand for rebar has declined again, but the month - on - month decline has narrowed. The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, and the futures price is under pressure. The supply of scrap steel is tight, and the demand has short - term support. The factory inventory has decreased, and the absolute level is at a high level in the same period. It is expected that scrap steel prices will oscillate [9]. Coke - After the fourth round of price cuts for coke was implemented, the shipment situation of coke enterprises has improved, and the expectation of stable prices in the coke market is increasing. The supply side shows that some coke enterprises have reduced their operations due to environmental protection and losses, and the overall coke production has continued to decline. The demand side shows that the decline in molten iron production has slowed down, but there is still an expectation of a decline. Overall, the inventory of coke enterprises needs to be digested, the demand support is insufficient, and the upward space for coke prices is limited. In the medium term, there is still downward pressure on coke prices [9][11][12]. Coking Coal - The order - signing situation of coal mines has improved, but downstream enterprises' procurement is mainly for rigid demand, and the market sentiment is still cautious. Some coal mines that were shut down due to environmental protection and safety inspections are resuming production, and coking coal production is expected to recover from a low level. In terms of imports, the port inventory is high, downstream procurement willingness is low, and the customs clearance volume remains low. The demand side shows that coke production has declined from a high level, and there is an expectation of a further decline in coke enterprise operations under the pressure of losses. The inventory structure problem has not improved significantly. The supply - side tightening state is difficult to sustain, downstream rigid demand in the off - season tends to decline, there is still pressure on mine - end de - stocking, and coking coal prices lack a driving force for a trend - like increase. It is expected that coking coal prices will oscillate [13]. Ferrosilicon Manganese - The cost side of ferrosilicon manganese has continuous disturbances, and the market price of manganese ore has gradually stabilized and is showing an upward trend. The supply side shows that the overall production fluctuation is limited. The demand side shows that the futures have rebounded, the bargaining difficulty of steel procurement has increased, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to hold prices. Ferrosilicon manganese production is expected to increase, the terminal steel demand is entering the off - season, the supply - demand is becoming more relaxed, but the cost of factories and manganese ore traders is inverted, and the sentiment of holding prices is strong. It is expected that the futures will oscillate in the short term [16][17]. Ferrosilicon - During the peak season, the expectation of energy such as electricity has improved. The cost side shows that the semi - coke market is stable. The supply side shows that the market's bearish sentiment has eased, most enterprises are producing according to orders, and the inventory decline trend has slowed down. The demand side shows that the steel procurement in June is basically over, and the metal magnesium market is in a general mood. Ferrosilicon has limited internal contradictions, manufacturers have a strong willingness to hold prices, but some manufacturers have an expectation of increasing production, and the supply - demand gap is expected to be filled. Attention should be paid to steel procurement and production in the future, and it is expected that the futures will oscillate in the short term [18].