供需格局未变，价格仍将寻底

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coking coal and coke is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the coking coal market, supply over - increased in H1 2025, leading to rapid inventory accumulation and a one - sided price decline. In H2, although demand is resilient, the supply - demand contradiction is hard to ease, and prices will continue to seek a bottom. Policy changes are crucial for supply [2][76]. - The coke market is restricted by over - capacity, and prices mainly follow cost fluctuations. The current inventory is okay, and the fundamentals are healthier than coking coal, but the over - capacity problem persists. The export market is shrinking, but stable daily pig iron production provides some support [3][77]. - In H1 2025, the prices of coking coal and coke dropped rapidly due to intensified supply - demand contradictions and capital factors, reflecting fundamental expectations in advance. In H2, coking coal prices are expected to continue the weak oscillation pattern with limited downside space, and there may be periodic rebounds restricted by warehouse receipt cost pressure. Attention should be paid to coal mine policy adjustments and marginal changes in demand [4][77]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 H1 Market Review - Coking coal prices continued the downward trend from 2024, with a step - by - step decline in the price center. In Q1, it declined slowly, and in Q2, it accelerated. In June, the market oscillated due to tightened safety supervision and inventory pressure. Coke prices followed coking coal prices due to over - capacity, and its fundamentals were relatively healthy with low supply and balanced supply - demand [11][12]. 3.2 Coking Coal: Difficulty in Active Supply Reduction and Continuous Accumulation of Upstream Inventory 3.2.1 Domestic Production with Obvious Year - on - Year Increment - The supply - demand imbalance in the coking coal market in H1 was mainly due to the over - release of supply. From January to April 2025, the national coking coal production increased by 6.12% year - on - year, with Shanxi's output increasing by 13.17%. In Q1, the resumption of production after the Spring Festival was faster than before. In Q2, inventory pressure emerged, and in June, the coal mine operating rate declined due to safety supervision and inventory pressure [23]. 3.2.2 Profit Remains the Key Factor for Imports, and Import Volume Slows Down - In H1 2025, the sharp decline in domestic coking coal prices led to an inverted import profit and a contraction in import volume. By April, the cumulative import volume decreased by 4% year - on - year. Mongolian coal imports decreased year - on - year, and port inventory accumulated. Seaborne coal imports also decreased and are expected to remain low in H2 [40][45]. 3.2.3 Coal Mine Inventory Accumulation - In Q1, the overall inventory was depleted by downstream consumption, but upstream inventory remained high. In Q2, downstream inventory was low, and coal mine inventory accumulated, pushing up the total inventory to a historical high [59]. 3.3 Coke: Low Supply, Lower Cost, but the Over - Capacity Pattern Remains Unchanged 3.3.1 Difficulty in Changing the Over - Capacity Pattern and Low Coking Profits - The decline in coking coal prices in H1 drove down coke prices, but the contraction of coking profits was relatively limited. The coke inventory is okay, and the fundamentals are healthier than coking coal. The coking industry still has an over - capacity problem, and the standardization of the J2604 contract is expected to promote technological transformation [68]. 3.3.2 Low Downstream Inventory and Declining Exports - The coking industry maintained a low operating rate, and the overall coke inventory was healthy. Downstream enterprises are expected to continue the low - inventory strategy in H2. The coke export market shrank, with a 25% year - on - year decline in cumulative exports by May 2025. However, the stable daily pig iron production of about 2.4 million tons in Q2 provided some support for coke demand [70][72]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Summary - In the coking coal market, supply over - increased in H1, leading to inventory accumulation and price decline. In H2, prices will be under pressure, and policy changes are crucial for supply. In the coke market, prices follow cost fluctuations, with over - capacity and a shrinking export market. The stable pig iron production provides some support. Coking coal prices are expected to oscillate weakly in H2, with limited downside space and possible periodic rebounds [76][77].