中信期货晨报：国内商品期货收盘涨跌不一，原油、集运欧线表现偏弱-20250626

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - Domestic economic maintains a stable pattern, with domestic assets presenting mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while in the long run, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [6]. - The domestic and overseas macro situations show different trends. Overseas, inflation trading cools down, and the long - and short - term allocation ideas diverge. In the domestic market, there are expectations of moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end implements established policies [7]. - The investment sentiment in the financial, precious metals, shipping, black building materials, energy - chemical, and agricultural sectors is mainly in a state of shock, with different influencing factors and short - term outlooks for each sector [7][9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Macro Essentials - Overseas Macro: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50% in June, with a more cautious expectation of rate cuts in the second half of the year. US economic data such as retail sales, industrial output, and the manufacturing index showed weakness, and the economic recovery is restricted by geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties. Rising oil prices may prompt the Fed to issue hawkish signals [6]. - Domestic Macro: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced multiple financial support policies, increasing policy expectations for the second half of the year. The "national subsidy" funds are being gradually allocated. In May, fixed - asset investment expanded, the service industry grew faster, and industrial and consumer data showed positive growth [6]. - Asset Views: Domestic assets have structural opportunities, and overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations. In the long run, a weak US dollar pattern persists, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and gold [6]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts are expected, and fiscal policies are being implemented [7]. - Overseas: Inflation trading cools down, and the economic growth expectation improves [7]. Finance - Stock index futures, index options, and treasury bond futures are all in a state of shock, with different influencing factors such as capital flow, option liquidity, and policy changes [7]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver are in short - term adjustment due to the progress of Sino - US negotiations, and are affected by Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy [7]. Shipping - The shipping market sentiment has declined, and the focus is on the recovery of the loading rate in June. The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of shock, affected by factors such as tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - Most products in the black building materials sector, including steel, iron ore, coke, and others, are in a state of shock, affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and policy [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Non - ferrous metals continue to be in a state of shock, with different trends for each metal. For example, copper prices are high, while zinc prices may decline [7]. Energy - Chemical - Different energy - chemical products have different trends. Crude oil, urea, and some other products may be in a state of shock or shock - decline, while ethylene glycol and short - fiber may show shock - rise trends [9]. Agriculture - Agricultural products such as livestock, rubber, and cotton are in a state of shock, affected by factors such as supply - demand, policy, and weather [9].