再论渠道库存与成本支撑

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cycle of expanding production capacity is not over, and the pressure on the mining end to reduce inventory has marginally eased. The supply of global primary lithium resources in 2025 is expected to reach 1608,000 tons of LCE, a year-on-year increase of 272,000 tons of LCE. The downstream demand growth rate has been slightly revised down, and attention should be paid to the expected difference in apparent demand. The theoretical cost support in 2025 has dropped to 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton, and the cost curve is becoming flatter. It is expected that the operating range of the main lithium carbonate contract in the second half of the year will be 55,000 - 67,000 yuan/ton [2][3][4][5] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In the first half of the year, the unexpectedly high production in the cathode material and cell sectors in January led to an upward revision of the annual demand growth rate, pushing up the price. After the Spring Festival, the over - supply in the salt sector and the negative feedback loop between ore and salt prices dragged down the price. Although some large salt factories started maintenance in April, the supply in the second quarter still increased month - on - month. The cost support moved down due to the decline in the current cost of enterprises, and the market sentiment became more pessimistic [18] 2. The Cycle of Expanding Production Capacity is Not Over, and the Pressure on the Mining End to Reduce Inventory has Marginally Eased 2.1 The Cycle of Expanding Production Capacity at the Resource End is Not Over - The supply of global primary lithium resources in 2025 is expected to be about 1.608 million tons of LCE, a year - on - year increase of 272,000 tons of LCE. The increase mainly comes from the resumption of production at Jiuxiawo and the output of Lagucuo and Daoxian Xiangyuan. Some projects' output has been slightly revised down. China, Africa, Argentina, and Chile have contributed significant year - on - year increments, while Australia's output has slightly decreased. The supply structure has become more diversified, and the risk of supply disruption is controllable [24][27][28] 2.2 The Differentiation between the Growth Rates of the Resource End and the Salt End: How Much Pressure is There on the Mining End to Reduce Inventory? - From January to May, the supply of lithium carbonate in the Chinese market increased by 42% year - on - year, far exceeding the resource end growth rate. The difference is mainly due to inventory changes. Overseas non - integrated miners have stable inventory days. African lithium mines have some inventory pressure, but it is controllable. The inventory in China has been decreasing, and the pressure to further reduce inventory is limited. The supply growth rate of lithium carbonate in the second half of the year is likely to approach the resource end growth rate. The inventory of salt lakes in Chile and Argentina is low, and the shipping data can be used as a leading indicator for imports [36][40][51] 3. The Terminal Growth Rate has been Slightly Revised Down, and Attention Should be Paid to the Expected Difference in Apparent Demand 3.1 The Power Terminal Maintains High Growth, and the Uncertainty of Energy Storage has Marginally Increased - In the power terminal, from January to May, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of new energy vehicles in China, Europe, and the United States were 44%, 27%, and 3% respectively. The growth rate in China may slow down in the second half of the year, but the end - of - year demand is still worth looking forward to. In Europe, the growth rate has exceeded expectations. In the United States, the policy pressure in the second half of the year is limited. The annual growth rate of global new energy vehicle sales is expected to be maintained at 20% - 26%. In the energy storage terminal, the demand expectation is pessimistic. Domestically, the cancellation of mandatory energy storage allocation has increased uncertainty, but the high winning bid volume in the first half of the year supports the demand in the second half. Overseas, the demand for exports to the United States may slow down, but the non - US market is performing well. The global energy storage cell shipments are expected to increase by 30% - 40% year - on - year [58][70][83] 3.2 The Inventory Days of Each Downstream Link Remain Neutral - After two years of inventory reduction, the inventory days of each downstream link have returned to a neutral level. The cathode material sector has maintained a low - inventory strategy, and there is little room for further inventory reduction. The cell sector has also achieved inventory reduction. The new energy vehicle inventory level is neutral, and the inventory pressure of some car companies is a structural problem. There may be trading opportunities due to the expected difference between the off - season and the peak season [84][87][88] 4. How to Understand the Downward Shift of Cost Support? - The updated balance sheet shows that the global lithium resources will have a surplus of 228,000 tons of LCE in 2025. The theoretical cost support in 2025 is 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton, down from the previous range. The cost reduction space of mature Australian mines is limited, while African projects may further reduce costs. The cost curve will become flatter, and the cost support will be marginally enhanced [97][98][102] 5. Investment Suggestions - In the second half of the year, the main lithium carbonate contract is expected to operate in the range of 55,000 - 67,000 yuan/ton. The market is relatively optimistic in the third quarter, and the price may decline at the end of the year. The space for unilateral trading is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the range in early Q3 and short positions at the end of Q3. It is more advisable to focus on the positive spread opportunity of LC2509 - LC2511 [106][107]