宏观动态点评：关税豁免临近到期扰动全球贸易｜关税影响高频跟踪（6月25日）

Trade Trends - U.S. imports showed a low-to-high trend in June, with container arrivals indicating imports below last year's levels, particularly from China, while imports from Vietnam accelerated significantly[2] - Korean exports to the U.S. improved notably in June, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% in the first 20 days, compared to -2.3% in May, driven mainly by semiconductor exports[4] - China's exports to the U.S. have shown resilience, with container throughput at major ports gradually increasing, surpassing last year's levels[2] Inflation and Consumer Behavior - Retail data indicates that inflation pressure from tariffs continues, with prices of imported goods rising approximately 1% and domestic goods by 0.3% since April[5] - U.S. consumer spending on goods and services has continued to slow, with the Redbook weekly retail index showing a downward trend in June[4] Business Confidence and Employment - Business investment expectations have been slow to recover, with a marginal decline in capital expenditure willingness reported in June surveys[5] - The labor market has shown signs of cooling, with initial jobless claims rising since late May, indicating a slight increase in layoffs[5] Financial Conditions - U.S. financial conditions have continued to ease, as indicated by Bloomberg's financial conditions index and narrowing corporate bond spreads[5] - Market inflation expectations remain stable, with 5-year inflation expectations slightly rising to 2.5% and 10-year expectations stable around 2.3%[5] Risks - Potential risks include the possibility of renewed fluctuations in tariff policies and unexpected price pressures from tariffs exceeding forecasts[6]