瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20250626

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's growth report shows that as of the week ending June 22, 2025, the U.S. cotton good-to-excellent rate was 47%, down from 48% the previous week and 56% in the same period over the past three years. The decline in the good-to-excellent rate, unfavorable weather in the production areas in the coming days, and the spill - over effect of the rebound in crude oil prices have boosted the U.S. cotton futures market [2]. - Domestically, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season. Enterprises have poor performance in new orders, with limited overall growth in summer orders. Orders are mostly short - term and small, and some enterprises have reduced shifts and lowered the overall operating rate. Some spinning enterprises are in a state of inventory accumulation, with poor profit margins, which affects their raw material procurement. The old - crop fundamentals change little, and short - term prices are volatile. There is a risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton in the budding and flowering stage in most parts of Xinjiang, and attention should be paid to the impact of the new - season cotton growth on the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 13,720 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price: 20,060 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan [2]. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 38,534 lots, up 1,087 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 161 lots, down 97 lots [2]. - Cotton main contract open interest: 584,196 lots, up 24,084 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest: 21,614 lots, down 306 lots [2]. - Cotton warehouse receipts: 10,334 lots, down 45 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts: 2 lots, unchanged [2]. 现货市场 - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,020 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32S): 20,380 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 13,726 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty): 14,436 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan [2]. - Imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32S) arrival price: 21,924 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32S) arrival price: 23,713 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2]. - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,360 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; national industrial cotton inventory: 826,000 tons, down 7,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - Cotton import volume: 40,000 tons, down 20,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume: 100,000 tons, down 20,000 tons [2]. - Imported cotton profit: 563 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; national commercial cotton inventory: 3.4587 million tons, down 0.6939 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 21.12 days, up 0.14 days; grey fabric inventory days: 32.54 days, up 1.37 days [2]. - Cloth output: 2.67 billion meters, down 0.05 billion meters; yarn output: 1.951 million tons, down 36,000 tons [2]. - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value: 1.3577737 billion US dollars, up 197.1179 million US dollars; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value: 1.2631773 billion US dollars, up 5.2109 million US dollars [2]. Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility: 12.29%, up 4.36%; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility: 12.29%, up 4.35% [2]. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility: 6.47%, down 0.24%; cotton 60 - day historical volatility: 12.78%, unchanged [2]. Industry News - As of June 25, 2024, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton processed by national cotton processing enterprises in the 2024/25 season was 30,121,873 bales, totaling 6.801796 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.77%. The cumulative notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 6.43177 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.21% [2].