海外札记20250623：美元短期反弹，并不意味趋势反转

Group 1: Market Trends - The recent rebound of the US dollar does not indicate a trend reversal, but rather a short-term reaction to geopolitical tensions and market conditions[6] - The dollar's rebound began on June 13, following Israeli attacks, but has limited sustainability due to unchanged oil supply levels from Iran, which increased exports by 44% to an average of 2.33 million barrels per day[17] - The market is currently experiencing crowded trades against the dollar, but this does not guarantee a reversal; the crowded short positions may face pressure if unexpected events occur[28] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the fourth consecutive time, with market expectations fully pricing in two rate cuts for 2025[39] - Economic growth forecasts have been revised down, with 2025 and 2026 GDP growth expected at 1.4% and 1.6% respectively, while unemployment rates are projected to rise to 4.5%[45] - Inflation expectations have been adjusted upwards, with the PCE inflation forecast for 2025 set at 3%[45] Group 3: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index saw a slight decline of 0.15% during the week of June 14-21, while the Nasdaq increased by 0.21%[31] - Oil prices rose by 2.09% during the same week, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East[31] - The risk premium for US stocks remains low, indicating potential vulnerability to rising interest rates and declining economic fundamentals[20]