瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20250626

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term enterprise malfunctions are expected to have little impact on production. Agricultural demand is currently lukewarm, with agricultural top - dressing and fertilizer preparation to continue next week. Domestic industrial demand has weakened, and the operating rate of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises continues to decline. Enterprises are promoting autumn pre - sales, and raw material prices are stabilizing. It is expected that some enterprises with planned maintenance will resume production, but overall, there are still more maintenance activities, and the capacity utilization rate will remain low. Recently, urea has continued to be shipped to ports, which has accelerated the sales of some urea enterprises. This week, domestic urea enterprise inventories have continued to decline, but overall inventory reduction is limited. The UR2509 contract is recommended to be traded in the range of 1700 - 1750 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1724 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is 42 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 233,314 lots, down 21,922 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 5183, down 9688. The exchange warehouse receipts are 500 lots, an increase of 500 lots [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei are 1790 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Henan 1770 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), in Jiangsu 1780 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), in Shandong 1800 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan), and in Anhui 1800 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan). The main contract basis is 76 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan. FOB prices in the Baltic are 375 dollars/ton (unchanged), and in the Chinese main port are 372.5 dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] Industry Situation - Port inventory is 29.5 million tons (up 5 million tons), and enterprise inventory is 109.59 million tons (down 4.01 million tons). The urea enterprise operating rate is 88.28% (up 0.48%), and the daily output is 204,400 tons (up 2500 tons). Urea export volume is 0 (unchanged), and the monthly output is 6,293,230 tons (up 448,150 tons) [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 31.82% (down 1.99%), and the melamine operating rate is 64.32% (up 0.55%). The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 186 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan), and the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 484 yuan/ton (down 194 yuan). The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 480.9 million tons (down 104.17 million tons), and the weekly output of melamine is 32,000 tons (up 300 tons) [2] Industry News - As of June 25, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 109.59 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.01 million tons or 3.53%. As of June 26, China's urea port sample inventory was 38.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.6 million tons or 29.15%. As of June 26, China's urea production enterprise output was 1.3902 billion tons, a decrease of 40.5 million tons or 2.83% from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate was 85.78%, a decrease of 2.50% from the previous period, with the trend changing from rising to falling [2] Suggestions - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]