瑞达期货鸡蛋产业日报-20250626

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a light - position trial for long positions as the futures price has shown a tendency to stop falling and recover after reaching the low - valuation area [2] 2) Core View of the Report - After the festival, the egg market enters the seasonal demand off - season. With a high egg - laying hen inventory and the pressure of newly - laid eggs from previously replenished hens, egg supply is sufficient. The storage cost increases due to the rainy season, leading to cautious purchasing by downstream dealers. Egg prices are at a relatively low level compared to the same period, and the breeding end is in a continuous loss state. However, the process of culling old hens has accelerated after the price reached a relatively low level, reducing the inventory expectation [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 3,550 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 11 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 20,481 lots, down 88 lots; the egg futures monthly spread (9 - 1) is 19 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 11 yuan; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 234,921 lots, down 2,313 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 lots [2] Spot Market - The egg spot price is 2.84 yuan per catty, down 0.01 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is - 709 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 2 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national egg - laying hen inventory index is 110.89 (with 2015 = 100), down 1.46; the national culled egg - laying hen index is 108.68 (with 2015 = 100), up 11.92; the average price of egg - laying chicken chicks in the main production areas is 4 yuan per chick, down 0.1 yuan; the national new - chick index is 106.78 (with 2015 = 100), down 31.9; the average price of egg - laying chicken compound feed is 2.74 yuan per kilogram, unchanged; the breeding profit of egg - laying chickens is - 0.47 yuan per chicken, up 0.08 yuan; the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 8.88 yuan per kilogram, down 0.24 yuan; the national average age of culled chickens is 506 days, down 4 days [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.31 yuan per kilogram, up 0.09 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.38 yuan per kilogram, up 0.03 yuan; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.42 yuan per kilogram, up 0.43 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.04 days, down 0.01 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 0.92 days, down 0.11 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12,792.51 tons, down 110.81 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly egg consumption in the sales area is 7,527 tons, down 667 tons [2] Industry News - The average egg price in Shandong, Hebei, Guangdong, and Beijing in the main production areas remained unchanged from the previous day. After the festival, the egg market enters the seasonal demand off - season, with sufficient supply, increased storage costs, and cautious purchasing by downstream dealers [2] Viewpoint Summary - Egg supply is sufficient, prices are at a relatively low level, and the breeding end is in a loss state. However, the culling of old hens has accelerated, and the futures price has shown a tendency to stop falling and recover, suggesting a light - position trial for long positions [2]