瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250626

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the I2509 contract first declined and then rebounded. Macroscopically, Fed Chairman Powell reiterated in his second - day congressional testimony that due to uncertainties from unresolved tariff disputes, the Fed doesn't need to rush to cut interest rates. In terms of supply - demand, the shipment and arrival volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore increased this period, while domestic port inventories decreased. The blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of steel mills increased from a decline, temporarily supporting iron ore demand. Overall, the strong rebound of coking coal and coke in furnace materials supports the iron ore price, with a mixed fundamental situation. Attention should be paid to the trading rhythm. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running near the 0 - axis. Operationally, short - term intraday trading is recommended, with attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - I main contract closing price: 705.50 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan; I main contract position: 654,225 lots, down 17723 lots; I 9 - 1 contract spread: 26 yuan/ton, unchanged; I contract top 20 net position: - 41062 lots, up 7933 lots; I Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts: 3000 lots, unchanged; Singapore iron ore main contract quote at 15:00: 93.15 dollars/ton, up 0.41 dollars [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB powder ore: 763 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan; Qingdao Port 60.8% Mac fine ore: 743 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; Jingtang Port 56.5% Super Special fine ore: 659 yuan/dry ton, unchanged; I main contract basis (Mac fine dry ton - main contract): 38 yuan, down 5 yuan; Iron ore 62% Platts Index (previous day): 93.80 dollars/ton, up 0.75 dollars; Jiangsu scrap steel/Qingdao Port 60.8% Mac fine ore: 3.69, up 0.02; Import cost estimate: 774 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipment volume (weekly): 3506.70 million tons, up 154.00 million tons; China's 47 - port arrival volume (weekly): 2772.90 million tons, up 255.40 million tons; 45 - port iron ore inventory (weekly): 13894.16 million tons, down 38.98 million tons; Sample steel mill iron ore inventory (weekly): 8936.24 million tons, up 137.56 million tons [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Iron ore import volume (monthly): 9813 million tons, down 501 million tons; Iron ore available days (weekly): 18 days, down 4 days; 266 mines' daily output (weekly): 40.32 million tons, up 1.34 million tons; 266 mines' operating rate (weekly): 63.55%, up 2.13%; 266 mines' iron concentrate powder inventory (weekly): 51.87 million tons, down 6.46 million tons; BDI index: 1665, down 16; Iron ore freight rate: Tubarao, Brazil - Qingdao: 22.68 dollars/ton, up 0.02 dollars; Iron ore freight rate: Western Australia - Qingdao: 8.78 dollars/ton, down 0.30 dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate (weekly): 83.84%, up 0.45%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate (weekly): 90.81%, up 0.25%; Domestic crude steel output (monthly): 8655 million tons, up 53 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - Underlying historical 20 - day volatility (daily): 11.38%, up 0.09%; Underlying historical 40 - day volatility (daily): 16.44%, down 0.42%; At - the - money call option implied volatility (daily): 16.18%, down 0.11%; At - the - money put option implied volatility (daily): 15.88%, up 0.32% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Mysteel statistics: New - caliber 114 steel mills' imported sinter powder total inventory is 2664.42 million tons, down 55.05 million tons from the previous period. Imported sinter powder total daily consumption is 115.94 million tons, down 1.87 million tons from the previous period. Inventory - to - consumption ratio is 22.98, down 0.10 from the previous period. Old - caliber 64 steel mills' imported sinter powder total inventory is 1229.68 million tons, up 13.54 million tons from the previous period. From June 16th to June 22nd, 2025, China's 47 - port arrival volume is 2772.9 million tons, up 255.4 million tons; 45 - port arrival volume is 2562.7 million tons, up 178.2 million tons; Northern six - port arrival volume is 1153.5 million tons, down 65.5 million tons [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - Friday's domestic iron ore port inventory, steel mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate [2].