瑞达期货国债期货日报-20250626

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market has been continuously adjusting this week, significantly affected by the stock - bond seesaw. With the current interest rates remaining at a low level, profit - taking pressure has pushed interest rates slightly higher. The market's trading focus is unclear due to uncertain policy impacts in the second half of the year. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize before making band - based allocations [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价108.950，down 0.02%，成交量52163，down 1100；TF主力收盘价106.170，unchanged，成交量38895，down 930；TS主力收盘价102.510，unchanged，成交量24312，down 514；TL主力收盘价120.720，up 0.1%，成交量72122，down 2020 [2] 3.2 Futures Spread - TL2512 - 2509价差 - 0.16，down 0.01；T2512 - 2509价差0.03，up 0.02；TF2512 - 2509价差0.07，down 0.02；TS2512 - 2509价差0.13，down 0.00；T09 - TL09价差 - 11.77，down 0.09；TF09 - T09价差 - 2.78，up 0.03；TS09 - T09价差 - 6.44，up 0.04；TS09 - TF09价差 - 3.66，up 0.02 [2] 3.3 Futures Position - T主力持仓量202431，down 2650；T前20名多头191730，down 1983；T前20名空头206973，down 1544；T前20名净空仓15243，up 439；TF主力持仓量160108，down 1028；TF前20名多头147895，down 599；TF前20名空头170948，down 264；TF前20名净空仓23053，up 335；TS主力持仓量118869，up 621；TS前20名多头88068，up 211；TS前20名空头106959，up 919；TS前20名净空仓18891，up 708；TL主力持仓量115275，up 622；TL前20名多头109182，up 984；TL前20名空头116993，up 1959；TL前20名净空仓7811，up 975 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Price) - 250007.IB(6y）101.299，up 0.0155；2500802.IB(6y）99.0955，up 0.0001；240020.IB(4y)101.0633，down 0.0215；240020.IB(4y)100.8844，down 0.0667；250006.IB(1.7y)100.3688，up 0.0158；240010.IB(2y)100.8301，up 0.0069；210005.IB(17y)136.4191，down 0.5585；210014.IB(18y)132.6415，down 0.2480 [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1y yield 1.3650%，up 0.50bp；3y yield 1.4050%，down 0.25bp；5y yield 1.4950%，up 0.50bp；7y yield 1.5900%，up 1.00bp；10y yield 1.6535%，up 0.75bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight rate 1.3788%，down 4.12bp；Shibor overnight rate 1.3700%，down 0.10bp；Silver - pledged 7 - day rate 1.6668%，down 2.32bp；Shibor 7 - day rate 1.6700%，down 0.10bp；Silver - pledged 14 - day rate 1.7300%，down 2.00bp；Shibor 14 - day rate 1.7360%，up 1.40bp [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - 1y LPR 3.00%，unchanged；5y LPR 3.5%，unchanged [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - Issuance scale 5093 billion yuan，maturity scale 2035 billion yuan，interest rate 1.4% for 7 - day，net investment 3058 billion yuan [2] 3.9 Industry News - Six departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", proposing 19 key measures in six aspects；The central bank conducted a 3000 - billion - yuan 1 - year MLF operation on June 25；The National Development and Reform Commission will issue the third - batch of consumer goods trade - in funds in July and formulate a monthly and weekly national subsidy fund usage plan [2] 3.10 Key Data to Focus On - On June 26 at 20:30, pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending June 21 and the final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the US in Q1；On June 27 at 20:30, focus on the annual rate of the US core PCE price index in May；On June 27 at 22:00, focus on the final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the US in June [3]