瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20250626

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - On Thursday, the HC2510 contract first declined and then rebounded. The National Development and Reform Commission stated that the third - batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be issued in July. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased again, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.59%. Factory inventory increased while social inventory decreased, and the total inventory increased by 0.99 million tons. Overall, hot - rolled coil production remains at a high level, terminal demand is resilient, and the strong rebound of coking coal and coke in furnace materials supports steel prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are consolidating at a low level with the green bar shrinking. Operationally, conduct intraday short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,103 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] - HC main contract position: 1,510,669 lots, up 263 lots [2] - HC contract top 20 net position: 106,068 lots, down 352 lots [2] - HC10 - 1 contract spread: 2 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 70,514 tons, down 1,779 tons [2] - HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 130 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Guangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Wuhan 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tianjin 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - HC main contract basis: 97 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread: 90 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 700 yuan/wet ton, down 3 yuan [2] - Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,910 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Domestic iron ore port inventory: 138.9416 million tons, down 0.3898 million tons [2] - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 811,200 tons, down 60,400 tons [2] - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.3401 million tons, down 87,200 tons [2] - Hebei billet inventory: 772,600 tons, up 80,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.84%, up 0.45 percentage points [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.81%, up 0.25 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output: 3.2724 million tons, up 0.0179 million tons [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 83.59%, up 0.45 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory: 782,200 tons, up 17,000 tons [2] - 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory: 2.6294 million tons, down 7,100 tons [2] - Domestic crude steel output: 86.55 million tons, up 0.53 million tons [2] - Steel net export volume: 10.1 million tons, up 0.16 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.6485 million vehicles, up 0.0298 million vehicles [2] - Automobile sales: 2.6863 million vehicles, up 0.0967 million vehicles [2] - Air - conditioner production: 29.48 million units, down 1.353 million units [2] - Household refrigerator production: 8.51 million units, up 0.331 million units [2] - Household washing machine production: 9.412 million units, down 0.239 million units [2] 3.6 Industry News - On June 26, Mysteel reported that the actual output of hot - rolled coils was 3.2724 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0179 million tons; factory inventory was 782,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 tons; social inventory was 2.6294 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,100 tons; total inventory was 3.4116 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0099 million tons; apparent demand was 3.2625 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0444 million tons [2] - Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at a press conference that the third - batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be issued in July. At the same time, relevant parties will be coordinated to formulate monthly and weekly plans for using national subsidy funds in different fields to ensure the orderly implementation of the consumer goods trade - in policy throughout the year [2]